CourtFrame
Pricing
Liga Uruguaya

Liga Uruguaya Predictions

Win probabilities from the CourtFrame model

Sunday, November 1

Liga Uruguaya•12:30 AM

Our pick · Lean

Malvin

Projected margin: Malvin by 3.9

62%Win probability
Hebraica y Macabi 38%62% Malvin
  • ▸Our models split from the pick: 6 of 7 favour Hebraica y Macabi.
  • ▸Power Index: Malvin 6th, Hebraica y Macabi 12th.
  • ▸Hebraica y Macabi: L-L-L-L-W in the last 5 league games.
7 Models6 of 7 favour Hebraica y Macabi
  • Elo
    61%
  • Logistic
    65%
  • Logistic v2
    56%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    56%
  • Gradient boosting
    55%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    55%
  • LLM panelPub
    38%

Power Index

Hebraica y Macabi0.0↓8.1#12
Malvin39.4↓2.7#6
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Hebraica y Macabi1–1
LLLLW
7 days rest
Malvin1–1
LWLWL

Saturday, October 31

Liga Uruguaya•12:30 AM

No pick yet — not enough games this season

Power Index

Atenas32.4↓6.3#7
Aguada43.4↓32.1#5
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Atenas1–2
LLW
5 days rest
Aguada2–1
LLWWL
3 days rest

Friday, October 30

Liga Uruguaya•10:15 PM

No pick yet — not enough games this season

Power Index

Urunday4.5↓1.9#11
Larranaga18.6↑18.6#10
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Urunday0–3
LLLLL
3 days rest
Larranaga1–2
LLW
2 days rest
Liga Uruguaya•12:30 AM

Our pick · Clear favourite

Union Atletica

Projected margin: Union Atletica by 9.9

70%Win probability
Goes 30%70% Union Atletica
  • ▸Our models split from the pick: 6 of 7 favour Goes.
  • ▸Power Index: Goes 4th, Union Atletica 9th.
  • ▸Goes: W-L-L-W-W in the last 5 league games.
7 Models6 of 7 favour Goes
  • Elo
    61%
  • Logistic
    65%
  • Logistic v2
    81%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    81%
  • Gradient boosting
    78%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    78%
  • LLM panelPub
    30%

Power Index

Goes59.2↑0.5#4
Union Atletica28.6↓5.7#9
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Goes2–1
WLLWW
3 days rest
Union Atletica1–2
LWWLL
4 days rest

Thursday, October 29

Liga Uruguaya•10:15 PM

Our pick · Lean

Defensor

Projected margin: Defensor by 3.6

59%Win probability
Bigua 41%59% Defensor
  • ▸Our models split from the pick: 6 of 7 favour Bigua.
  • ▸Power Index: Defensor 1st, Bigua 2nd.
  • ▸Bigua: L-L-W-W-W in the last 5 league games.
7 Models6 of 7 favour Bigua
  • Elo
    63%
  • Logistic
    71%
  • Logistic v2
    53%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    53%
  • Gradient boosting
    55%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    52%
  • LLM panelPub
    41%

Power Index

Bigua70.2↓29.8#2
Defensor100.0↑8.5#1
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Bigua3–0
LLWWW
2 days rest
Defensor1–0
WLLLW
Liga Uruguaya•12:30 AM

Our pick · Lean

Malvin

Projected margin: Malvin by 0.7

58%Win probability
Malvin 58%42% Penarol
  • ▸Our models split from the pick: 6 of 7 favour Penarol.
  • ▸Power Index: Penarol 3rd, Malvin 6th.
  • ▸Malvin: L-W-L-W-L in the last 5 league games.
7 Models6 of 7 favour Penarol
  • Elo
    66%
  • Logistic
    74%
  • Logistic v2
    63%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    61%
  • Gradient boosting
    61%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    58%
  • LLM panelPub
    42%

Power Index

Malvin39.4↓2.7#6
Penarol67.3↓2.4#3
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Malvin1–1
LWLWL
6 days rest
Penarol1–0
LLWWW
7 days rest

Monday, October 26

0/1 correct (0%)
Liga Uruguaya•10:15 PM
✗ Missed

No pick yet — not enough games this season

Power Index

Union Atletica28.6↓5.7#9
Atenas32.4↓6.3#7
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Union Atletica1–1
LLWWL
2 days rest
Atenas0–2
LL
4 days rest

Tuesday, October 27

0/1 correct (0%)
Liga Uruguaya•12:30 AM
✗ Missed

CourtFrame model · Clear favourite

Nacional

Projected margin: Nacional by 5.6

71%Win probability
Nacional 71%29% Goes
  • ▸7 of 7 CourtFrame models make Nacional the favourite.
  • ▸Power Index: Goes 4th, Nacional 8th.
  • ▸Nacional: W-L-L-L-W in the last 5 league games.
7 Models7 of 7 favour Nacional
  • Elo
    80%
  • Logistic
    78%
  • Logistic v2Pub
    68%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    67%
  • Gradient boosting
    80%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    79%
  • LLM panel
    71%

Power Index

Nacional31.5↓9.6#8
Goes59.2↑0.5#4
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Nacional1–1
WLLLW
5 days rest
Goes1–1
WWLLW
4 days rest
Liga Uruguaya•10:15 PM

CourtFrame model · Lean

Urunday

Projected margin: Urunday by 3.0

61%Win probability
Urunday 61%39% Bigua
  • ▸5 of 7 CourtFrame models make Urunday the favourite.
  • ▸Power Index: Bigua 2nd, Urunday 11th.
  • ▸Urunday: L-L-L-L-L in the last 5 league games.
7 Models5 of 7 favour Urunday
  • Elo
    59%
  • Logistic
    48%
  • Logistic v2Pub
    56%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    56%
  • Gradient boosting
    59%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    60%
  • LLM panel
    41%

Power Index

Urunday4.5↓1.9#11
Bigua70.2↓29.8#2
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Urunday0–2
LLLLL
2 days rest
Bigua2–0
LLLWW
4 days rest

Wednesday, October 28

Liga Uruguaya•12:30 AM

No pick yet — not enough games this season

Power Index

Larranaga18.6↑18.6#10
Aguada43.4↓32.1#5
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Larranaga0–2
LL
5 days rest
Aguada2–0
WLLWW
4 days rest

Friday, October 23

2/2 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•10:15 PM
✓ Correct

No pick yet — not enough games this season

Power Index

Bigua70.2↓29.8#2
Larranaga18.6↑18.6#10
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Bigua1–0
WLLLW
4 days rest
Larranaga0–1
L
2 days rest
Liga Uruguaya•12:30 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Lean

Goes

Projected margin: Goes by 0.6

58%Win probability
Goes 58%42% Malvin
  • ▸7 of 7 CourtFrame models make Goes the favourite.
  • ▸Power Index: Goes 4th, Malvin 6th.
  • ▸Goes: L-W-W-L-L in the last 5 league games.
7 Models7 of 7 favour Goes
  • Elo
    57%
  • Logistic
    57%
  • Logistic v2
    63%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    64%
  • Gradient boosting
    57%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    56%
  • LLM panelPub
    58%

Power Index

Goes59.2↑0.5#4
Malvin39.4↓2.7#6
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Goes0–1
LWWLL
3 days rest
Malvin1–0
LLWLW
3 days rest

Saturday, October 24

1/1 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•12:30 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Lean

Aguada

Projected margin: Aguada by 0.4

58%Win probability
Aguada 58%42% Union Atletica
  • ▸7 of 7 CourtFrame models make Aguada the favourite.
  • ▸Power Index: Aguada 5th, Union Atletica 9th.
  • ▸Aguada: W-W-L-L-W in the last 5 league games.
7 Models7 of 7 favour Aguada
  • Elo
    72%
  • Logistic
    65%
  • Logistic v2
    65%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    65%
  • Gradient boosting
    63%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    61%
  • LLM panelPub
    58%

Power Index

Aguada43.4↓32.1#5
Union Atletica28.6↓5.7#9
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Aguada1–0
WWLLW
3 days rest
Union Atletica1–0
WLLWW
3 days rest

Thursday, October 22

0/2 correct (0%)
Liga Uruguaya•10:15 PM
✗ Missed

No pick yet — not enough games this season

Power Index

Atenas32.4↓6.3#7
Nacional31.5↓9.6#8
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Atenas0–1
L
2 days rest
Nacional0–1
LWLLL
Back-to-back
Liga Uruguaya•12:30 AM
✗ Missed

Our pick · Lean

Urunday

Projected margin: Urunday by 0.2

58%Win probability
Urunday 58%42% Penarol
  • ▸Our models split from the pick: 4 of 7 favour Penarol.
  • ▸Power Index: Penarol 3rd, Urunday 11th.
  • ▸Urunday: W-W-L-L-L in the last 5 league games.
7 Models4 of 7 favour Penarol
  • Elo
    62%
  • Logistic
    65%
  • Logistic v2
    56%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    54%
  • Gradient boosting
    50%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    50%
  • LLM panelPub
    42%

Power Index

Urunday4.5↓1.9#11
Penarol67.3↓2.4#3
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Urunday
WWLLL
Penarol
WLLWW

Sunday, October 25

1/1 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•12:30 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Lean

Hebraica y Macabi

Projected margin: Hebraica y Macabi by 0.3

58%Win probability
Hebraica y Macabi 58%42% Urunday
  • ▸7 of 7 CourtFrame models make Hebraica y Macabi the favourite.
  • ▸Power Index: Urunday 11th, Hebraica y Macabi 12th.
  • ▸Hebraica y Macabi: L-L-L-L-L in the last 5 league games.
7 Models7 of 7 favour Hebraica y Macabi
  • Elo
    59%
  • Logistic
    59%
  • Logistic v2
    63%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    64%
  • Gradient boosting
    67%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    67%
  • LLM panelPub
    58%

Power Index

Hebraica y Macabi0.0↓8.1#12
Urunday4.5↓1.9#11
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Hebraica y Macabi0–1
LLLLL
6 days rest
Urunday0–1
WLLLL
3 days rest

Wednesday, October 21

0/2 correct (0%)
Liga Uruguaya•10:15 PM
✗ Missed

No pick yet — not enough games this season

Power Index

Larranaga18.6↑18.6#10
Union Atletica28.6↓5.7#9
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Larranaga
No recent games
Union Atletica
WWLLW
Liga Uruguaya•12:30 AM
✗ Missed

Our pick · Lean

Nacional

Projected margin: Nacional by 0.4

58%Win probability
Nacional 58%42% Aguada
  • ▸7 of 7 CourtFrame models make Nacional the favourite.
  • ▸Power Index: Aguada 5th, Nacional 8th.
  • ▸Nacional: W-L-W-L-L in the last 5 league games.
7 Models7 of 7 favour Nacional
  • Elo
    66%
  • Logistic
    71%
  • Logistic v2
    67%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    67%
  • Gradient boosting
    64%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    65%
  • LLM panelPub
    58%

Power Index

Nacional31.5↓9.6#8
Aguada43.4↓32.1#5
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Nacional
WLWLL
Aguada
LWWLL

Tuesday, October 20

2/2 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•10:15 PM
✓ Correct

No pick yet — not enough games this season

Power Index

Malvin39.4↓2.7#6
Atenas32.4↓6.3#7
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Malvin
LLLWL
Atenas
No recent games
Liga Uruguaya•12:30 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Lean

Defensor

Projected margin: Defensor by 0.5

58%Win probability
Defensor 58%42% Goes
  • ▸7 of 7 CourtFrame models make Defensor the favourite.
  • ▸Power Index: Defensor 1st, Goes 4th.
  • ▸Defensor: L-W-L-L-L in the last 5 league games.
7 Models7 of 7 favour Defensor
  • Elo
    69%
  • Logistic
    63%
  • Logistic v2
    59%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    59%
  • Gradient boosting
    63%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    64%
  • LLM panelPub
    58%

Power Index

Defensor100.0↑8.5#1
Goes59.2↑0.5#4
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Defensor
LWLLL
Goes
WLWWL

Monday, October 19

1/1 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•10:15 PM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Lean

Bigua

Projected margin: Bigua by 0.7

58%Win probability
Bigua 58%42% Hebraica y Macabi
  • ▸7 of 7 CourtFrame models make Bigua the favourite.
  • ▸Power Index: Bigua 2nd, Hebraica y Macabi 12th.
  • ▸Bigua: W-W-L-L-L in the last 5 league games.
7 Models7 of 7 favour Bigua
  • Elo
    66%
  • Logistic
    70%
  • Logistic v2
    71%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    72%
  • Gradient boosting
    66%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    67%
  • LLM panelPub
    58%

Power Index

Bigua70.2↓29.8#2
Hebraica y Macabi0.0↓8.1#12
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Bigua
WWLLL
Hebraica y Macabi
LLLLL

Tuesday, June 23

0/1 correct (0%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Final•12:15 AM
✗ Missed

Our pick · Toss-up

Aguada

Projected margin: Penarol by 0.4

50%Win probability
Aguada 50%50% Penarol
  • ▸Power Index: Penarol 1st, Aguada 2nd.
  • ▸Aguada: L-L-W-W-L in the last 5.
  • ▸Penarol: W-W-L-L-W in the last 5.

Power Index

Aguada85.2#2
Penarol100.0#1
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Aguada29–15
LLWWL
3 days rest
Penarol35–8
WWLLW
3 days rest
Playoff SeriesFinals — Game 6
Aguada
2
Penarol
3
First to 4 wins
Elimination game for Aguada
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Aguada: 12 gamesPenarol: 11 games

Saturday, June 20

1/1 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Final•12:15 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Lean

Penarol

Projected margin: Penarol by 4.3

69%Win probability
Penarol 69%31% Aguada
  • ▸Power Index: Penarol 1st, Aguada 2nd.
  • ▸Penarol: W-W-W-L-L in the last 5.
  • ▸Aguada: W-L-L-W-W in the last 5.

Power Index

Penarol100.0#1
Aguada85.2#2
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Penarol34–8
WWWLL
3 days rest
Aguada29–14
WLLWW
3 days rest
Playoff SeriesFinals — Game 5
Penarol
2
Aguada
2
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Penarol: 10 gamesAguada: 11 games

Wednesday, June 17

0/1 correct (0%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Final•12:15 AM
✗ Missed

Our pick · Lean

Penarol

Projected margin: Penarol by 3.5

60%Win probability
Aguada 40%60% Penarol
  • ▸Power Index: Penarol 1st, Aguada 2nd.
  • ▸Aguada: W-W-L-L-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Penarol: W-W-W-W-L in the last 5.

Power Index

Aguada85.2#2
Penarol100.0#1
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Aguada28–14
WWLLW
4 days rest
Penarol34–7
WWWWL
4 days rest
Playoff SeriesFinals — Game 4
Aguada
1
Penarol
2
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Aguada: 10 gamesPenarol: 9 games

Saturday, June 13

0/1 correct (0%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Final•12:15 AM
✗ Missed

Our pick · Clear favourite

Penarol

Projected margin: Penarol by 4.2

77%Win probability
Aguada 23%77% Penarol
  • ▸Power Index: Penarol 1st, Aguada 2nd.
  • ▸Aguada: L-W-W-L-L in the last 5.
  • ▸Penarol: W-W-W-W-W in the last 5.

Power Index

Aguada85.2#2
Penarol100.0#1
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Aguada27–14
LWWLL
3 days rest
Penarol34–6
WWWWW
3 days rest
Playoff SeriesFinals — Game 3
Aguada
0
Penarol
2
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Aguada: 9 gamesPenarol: 8 games

Wednesday, June 10

1/1 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Final•12:15 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Clear favourite

Penarol

Projected margin: Penarol by 6.5

78%Win probability
Penarol 78%22% Aguada
  • ▸Power Index: Penarol 1st, Aguada 2nd.
  • ▸Penarol: W-W-W-W-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Aguada: W-L-W-W-L in the last 5.

Power Index

Penarol100.0#1
Aguada85.2#2
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Penarol33–6
WWWWW
6 days rest
Aguada27–13
WLWWL
6 days rest
Playoff SeriesFinals — Game 2
Penarol
1
Aguada
0
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Penarol: 7 gamesAguada: 8 games

Thursday, June 4

1/1 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Final•12:15 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Clear favourite

Penarol

Projected margin: Penarol by 6.1

76%Win probability
Penarol 76%24% Aguada
  • ▸Power Index: Penarol 1st, Aguada 2nd.
  • ▸Penarol: W-W-W-W-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Aguada: W-W-L-W-W in the last 5.

Power Index

Penarol100.0#1
Aguada85.2#2
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Penarol32–6
WWWWW
Aguada27–12
WWLWW
7 days rest
Playoff SeriesFinals — Game 1
Penarol
0
Aguada
0
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Penarol: 6 gamesAguada: 7 games

Thursday, May 28

1/1 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Semi-finals•11:15 PM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Clear favourite

Aguada

Projected margin: Aguada by 3.5

74%Win probability
Aguada 74%26% Nacional
  • ▸Power Index: Aguada 2nd, Nacional 3rd.
  • ▸Aguada: W-W-W-L-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Nacional: W-W-L-W-L in the last 5.

Power Index

Aguada85.2#2
Nacional63.3#3
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Aguada26–12
WWWLW
3 days rest
Nacional26–12
WWLWL
3 days rest
Playoff SeriesSemi-Finals — Game 4
Aguada
2
Nacional
1
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Aguada: 6 gamesNacional: 6 games

Wednesday, May 27

1/1 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Semi-finals•12:15 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Clear favourite

Penarol

Projected margin: Penarol by 10.1

73%Win probability
Penarol 73%27% Defensor
  • ▸Power Index: Penarol 1st, Defensor 8th.
  • ▸Penarol: W-W-W-W-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Defensor: W-L-W-L-L in the last 5.

Power Index

Penarol100.0#1
Defensor45.6#8
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Penarol31–6
WWWWW
4 days rest
Defensor18–20
WLWLL
4 days rest
Playoff SeriesSemi-Finals — Game 3
Penarol
2
Defensor
0
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Penarol: 5 gamesDefensor: 6 games

Monday, May 25

0/1 correct (0%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Semi-finals•11:15 PM
✗ Missed

Our pick · Lean

Nacional

Projected margin: Nacional by 0.8

56%Win probability
Nacional 56%44% Aguada
  • ▸Power Index: Aguada 2nd, Nacional 3rd.
  • ▸Nacional: W-W-W-L-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Aguada: W-W-W-W-L in the last 5.

Power Index

Nacional63.3#3
Aguada85.2#2
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Nacional26–11
WWWLW
4 days rest
Aguada25–12
WWWWL
4 days rest
Playoff SeriesSemi-Finals — Game 3
Nacional
1
Aguada
1
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Nacional: 5 gamesAguada: 5 games

Saturday, May 23

1/1 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Semi-finals•12:15 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Clear favourite

Penarol

Projected margin: Penarol by 5.7

78%Win probability
Defensor 22%78% Penarol
  • ▸Power Index: Penarol 1st, Defensor 8th.
  • ▸Defensor: W-W-L-W-L in the last 5.
  • ▸Penarol: W-W-W-W-W in the last 5.

Power Index

Defensor45.6#8
Penarol100.0#1
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Defensor18–19
WWLWL
3 days rest
Penarol30–6
WWWWW
3 days rest
Playoff SeriesSemi-Finals — Game 2
Defensor
0
Penarol
1
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Defensor: 5 gamesPenarol: 4 games

Thursday, May 21

0/1 correct (0%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Semi-finals•11:00 PM
✗ Missed

Our pick · Clear favourite

Aguada

Projected margin: Aguada by 5.2

72%Win probability
Aguada 72%28% Nacional
  • ▸Power Index: Aguada 2nd, Nacional 3rd.
  • ▸Aguada: W-W-W-W-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Nacional: W-W-W-W-L in the last 5.

Power Index

Aguada85.2#2
Nacional63.3#3
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Aguada25–11
WWWWW
2 days rest
Nacional25–11
WWWWL
2 days rest
Playoff SeriesSemi-Finals — Game 2
Aguada
1
Nacional
0
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Aguada: 4 gamesNacional: 4 games

Wednesday, May 20

1/1 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Semi-finals•12:15 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Lean

Penarol

Projected margin: Penarol by 7.7

68%Win probability
Penarol 68%32% Defensor
  • ▸Power Index: Penarol 1st, Defensor 8th.
  • ▸Penarol: W-W-W-W-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Defensor: L-W-W-L-W in the last 5.

Power Index

Penarol100.0#1
Defensor45.6#8
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Penarol29–6
WWWWW
Defensor18–18
LWWLW
5 days rest
Playoff SeriesSemi-Finals — Game 1
Penarol
0
Defensor
0
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Penarol: 3 gamesDefensor: 4 games

Tuesday, May 19

0/1 correct (0%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Semi-finals•12:15 AM
✗ Missed

Our pick · Clear favourite

Nacional

Projected margin: Nacional by 4.1

74%Win probability
Nacional 74%26% Aguada
  • ▸Power Index: Aguada 2nd, Nacional 3rd.
  • ▸Nacional: W-W-W-W-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Aguada: L-W-W-W-W in the last 5.

Power Index

Nacional63.3#3
Aguada85.2#2
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Nacional25–10
WWWWW
Aguada24–11
LWWWW
6 days rest
Playoff SeriesSemi-Finals — Game 1
Nacional
0
Aguada
0
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Nacional: 3 gamesAguada: 3 games

Tuesday, May 12

1/2 correct (50%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Quarter-finals•10:15 PM
✗ Missed

Our pick · Lean

Defensor

Projected margin: Defensor by 5.1

65%Win probability
Malvin 35%65% Defensor
  • ▸Power Index: Defensor 8th, Malvin 9th.
  • ▸Malvin: W-L-L-L-L in the last 5.
  • ▸Defensor: L-W-L-W-W in the last 5.

Power Index

Malvin45.2#9
Defensor45.6#8
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Malvin18–16
WLLLL
2 days rest
Defensor17–17
LWLWW
2 days rest
Playoff SeriesQuarter-Finals — Game 3
Malvin
0
Defensor
2
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Malvin: 2 gamesDefensor: 2 games
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Quarter-finals•1:15 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Clear favourite

Penarol

Projected margin: Penarol by 9.1

74%Win probability
Penarol 74%26% Urunday
  • ▸Power Index: Penarol 1st, Urunday 7th.
  • ▸Penarol: W-W-W-W-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Urunday: W-W-W-L-L in the last 5.

Power Index

Penarol100.0#1
Urunday46.6#7
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Penarol28–6
WWWWW
4 days rest
Urunday13–16
WWWLL
4 days rest
Playoff SeriesQuarter-Finals — Game 3
Penarol
2
Urunday
0
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Penarol: 2 gamesUrunday: 2 games

Monday, May 11

1/1 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Quarter-finals•10:15 PM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Clear favourite

Nacional

Projected margin: Nacional by 6.5

78%Win probability
Nacional 78%22% Bigua
  • ▸Power Index: Nacional 3rd, Bigua 5th.
  • ▸Nacional: W-W-W-W-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Bigua: L-W-W-L-L in the last 5.

Power Index

Nacional63.3#3
Bigua52.9#5
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Nacional24–10
WWWWW
2 days rest
Bigua16–14
LWWLL
2 days rest
Playoff SeriesQuarter-Finals — Game 3
Nacional
2
Bigua
0
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Nacional: 2 gamesBigua: 2 games

Sunday, May 10

1/1 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Quarter-finals•12:45 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Clear favourite

Defensor

Projected margin: Defensor by 5.7

74%Win probability
Defensor 74%26% Malvin
  • ▸Power Index: Defensor 8th, Malvin 9th.
  • ▸Defensor: W-L-W-L-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Malvin: L-W-L-L-L in the last 5.

Power Index

Defensor45.6#8
Malvin45.2#9
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Defensor16–17
WLWLW
4 days rest
Malvin18–15
LWLLL
4 days rest
Playoff SeriesQuarter-Finals — Game 2
Defensor
1
Malvin
0
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Defensor: 1 gamesMalvin: 1 games

Saturday, May 9

1/2 correct (50%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Quarter-finals•10:15 PM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Clear favourite

Aguada

Projected margin: Aguada by 8.2

78%Win probability
Aguada 78%22% Hebraica y Macabi
  • ▸Power Index: Aguada 2nd, Hebraica y Macabi 10th.
  • ▸Aguada: L-L-L-W-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Hebraica y Macabi: W-L-L-L-L in the last 5.

Power Index

Aguada85.2#2
Hebraica y Macabi41.5#10
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Aguada22–11
LLLWW
2 days rest
Hebraica y Macabi16–17
WLLLL
2 days rest
Playoff SeriesQuarter-Finals — Game 2
Aguada
1
Hebraica y Macabi
0
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Aguada: 1 gamesHebraica y Macabi: 1 games
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Quarter-finals•12:45 AM
✗ Missed

Our pick · Lean

Bigua

Projected margin: Bigua by 1.8

57%Win probability
Bigua 57%43% Nacional
  • ▸Power Index: Nacional 3rd, Bigua 5th.
  • ▸Bigua: W-L-W-W-L in the last 5.
  • ▸Nacional: L-W-W-W-W in the last 5.

Power Index

Bigua52.9#5
Nacional63.3#3
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Bigua16–13
WLWWL
4 days rest
Nacional23–10
LWWWW
4 days rest
Playoff SeriesQuarter-Finals — Game 2
Bigua
0
Nacional
1
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Bigua: 1 gamesNacional: 1 games

Friday, May 8

1/1 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Quarter-finals•10:15 PM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Clear favourite

Penarol

Projected margin: Penarol by 8.1

75%Win probability
Urunday 25%75% Penarol
  • ▸Power Index: Penarol 1st, Urunday 7th.
  • ▸Urunday: W-W-W-W-L in the last 5.
  • ▸Penarol: W-W-W-W-W in the last 5.

Power Index

Urunday46.6#7
Penarol100.0#1
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Urunday13–15
WWWWL
2 days rest
Penarol27–6
WWWWW
2 days rest
Playoff SeriesQuarter-Finals — Game 2
Urunday
0
Penarol
1
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Urunday: 1 gamesPenarol: 1 games

Thursday, May 7

1/1 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Quarter-finals•12:45 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Lean

Aguada

Projected margin: Aguada by 4.2

58%Win probability
Hebraica y Macabi 42%58% Aguada
  • ▸Power Index: Aguada 2nd, Hebraica y Macabi 10th.
  • ▸Hebraica y Macabi: L-W-L-L-L in the last 5.
  • ▸Aguada: W-L-L-L-W in the last 5.

Power Index

Hebraica y Macabi41.5#10
Aguada85.2#2
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Hebraica y Macabi16–16
LWLLL
4 days rest
Aguada21–11
WLLLW
4 days rest
Playoff SeriesQuarter-Finals — Game 1
Hebraica y Macabi
0
Aguada
0
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Hebraica y Macabi: 0 gamesAguada: 0 games

Wednesday, May 6

0/1 correct (0%)
Liga Uruguaya•Liga Uruguaya · Quarter-finals•10:15 PM
✗ Missed

Our pick · Toss-up

Malvin

Projected margin: Malvin by 0.4

50%Win probability
Malvin 50%50% Defensor
  • ▸Power Index: Defensor 8th, Malvin 9th.
  • ▸Malvin: L-L-W-L-L in the last 5.
  • ▸Defensor: W-W-L-W-L in the last 5.

Power Index

Malvin45.2#9
Defensor45.6#8
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Malvin18–14
LLWLL
3 days rest
Defensor15–17
WWLWL
3 days rest
Playoff SeriesQuarter-Finals — Game 1
Malvin
0
Defensor
0
First to 4 wins
Playoff Experience (3yr)
Malvin: 0 gamesDefensor: 0 games

Sunday, May 3

3/3 correct (100%)
Liga Uruguaya•12:30 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Clear favourite

Penarol

Projected margin: Penarol by 11.6

79%Win probability
Penarol 79%21% Hebraica y Macabi
  • ▸Power Index: Penarol 1st, Hebraica y Macabi 10th.
  • ▸Penarol: L-L-W-W-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Hebraica y Macabi: L-L-W-L-L in the last 5.

Power Index

Penarol100.0#1
Hebraica y Macabi41.5#10
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Penarol25–6
LLWWW
4 days rest
Hebraica y Macabi16–15
LLWLL
4 days rest
Liga Uruguaya•12:30 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Lean

Nacional

Projected margin: Nacional by 5.1

67%Win probability
Nacional 67%33% Defensor
  • ▸Power Index: Nacional 3rd, Defensor 8th.
  • ▸Nacional: W-W-L-W-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Defensor: L-W-W-L-W in the last 5.

Power Index

Nacional63.3#3
Defensor45.6#8
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Nacional21–10
WWLWW
4 days rest
Defensor15–16
LWWLW
4 days rest
Liga Uruguaya•12:30 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Lean

Aguada

Projected margin: Aguada by 3.6

60%Win probability
Malvin 40%60% Aguada
  • ▸Power Index: Aguada 2nd, Malvin 9th.
  • ▸Malvin: L-L-L-W-L in the last 5.
  • ▸Aguada: L-W-L-L-L in the last 5.

Power Index

Malvin45.2#9
Aguada85.2#2
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Malvin18–13
LLLWL
4 days rest
Aguada20–11
LWLLL
4 days rest

Wednesday, April 29

2/3 correct (67%)
Liga Uruguaya•12:15 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Lean

Nacional

Projected margin: Nacional by 6.4

58%Win probability
Nacional 58%42% Hebraica y Macabi
  • ▸Power Index: Nacional 3rd, Hebraica y Macabi 10th.
  • ▸Nacional: W-W-W-L-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Hebraica y Macabi: L-L-L-W-L in the last 5.

Power Index

Nacional63.3#3
Hebraica y Macabi41.5#10
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Nacional20–10
WWWLW
3 days rest
Hebraica y Macabi16–14
LLLWL
Liga Uruguaya•12:15 AM
✓ Correct

Our pick · Lean

Penarol

Projected margin: Penarol by 8.6

58%Win probability
Penarol 58%42% Malvin
  • ▸Power Index: Penarol 1st, Malvin 9th.
  • ▸Penarol: W-L-L-W-W in the last 5.
  • ▸Malvin: W-L-L-L-W in the last 5.

Power Index

Penarol100.0#1
Malvin45.2#9
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Penarol24–6
WLLWW
6 days rest
Malvin18–12
WLLLW
Liga Uruguaya•12:15 AM
✗ Missed

Our pick · Lean

Aguada

Projected margin: Aguada by 5.9

62%Win probability
Defensor 38%62% Aguada
  • ▸Power Index: Aguada 2nd, Defensor 8th.
  • ▸Defensor: L-L-W-W-L in the last 5.
  • ▸Aguada: W-L-W-L-L in the last 5.

Power Index

Defensor45.6#8
Aguada85.2#2
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Defensor14–16
LLWWL
Aguada20–10
WLWLL
3 days rest

Sunday, April 26

0/1 correct (0%)
Liga Uruguaya•12:30 AM
✗ Missed

Our pick · Lean

Aguada

Projected margin: Aguada by 7.3

58%Win probability
Aguada 58%42% Nacional
  • ▸Power Index: Aguada 2nd, Nacional 3rd.
  • ▸Aguada: W-W-L-W-L in the last 5.
  • ▸Nacional: W-W-W-W-L in the last 5.

Power Index

Aguada85.2#2
Nacional63.3#3
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Aguada20–9
WWLWL
Nacional19–10
WWWWL
3 days rest

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are CourtFrame Liga Uruguaya predictions?

Every published pick is graded against the final score, and the record — misses included — is public on the track record page. The model is also scored each night against the bookmakers' closing line.

Where do the numbers come from?

From the CourtFrame model, a statistical model retrained every night on every game we track: team ratings carried across seasons, recent form, rest, and box-score efficiency adjusted for the opponents played. When a team has too few games behind it, we publish no pick rather than a guess.

How should I use these predictions?

Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice.