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Warriors erase 23-point first-quarter deficit, punish Lakers’ turnovers in 112-95 win

Golden State turned a 38-15 first-quarter hole into a 112-95 win over Los Angeles at Chase Center, outscoring the Lakers 97-57 over the final three quarters. The Warriors’ 22 made 3s, 31 assists and 11 steals flipped a matchup that entered with Los Angeles holding the stronger early-season profile.

CourtFrame
5 min read

Key Takeaways

  • 1Golden State Warriors beat Los Angeles Lakers 112–95 at Chase Center, a 17-point margin.
  • 2The second quarter decided it: Golden State Warriors won it 38–15, a 23-point swing.
  • 3The two teams combined for 207 points.
  • 4The CourtFrame model picked Los Angeles Lakers at 71.2% confidence — the pick missed.

The Golden State Warriors produced the sharpest in-game reversal of their young season Saturday at Chase Center, beating the Los Angeles Lakers 112-95 in the regular season after falling behind 38-15 in the first quarter.

Los Angeles arrived at 4-1 with the stronger pregame indicators: a 50.37 CourtFrame Power Index, 10th in the league, compared with Golden State’s 37.01 and 16th-place ranking. The Lakers also entered with a 107.1 offensive rating, 63.8 true shooting percentage and plus-6.7 net rating through six games. Golden State had been closer to neutral, carrying a minus-0.9 net rating and a 100.6 offensive rating through six games.

For one quarter, that gap looked real. The Lakers scored 38 points in the opening period, while the Warriors managed 15. Then the game inverted. Golden State answered with a 38-15 second quarter, matched Los Angeles’ opening burst with its own sustained shot-making, and won the second half 59-42.

Golden State’s ball movement broke the game open

The Warriors finished with 31 assists on 38 made field goals, a distribution profile that matched their season-long strength. Golden State entered with a 66.7 assist rate and 26.5 assists per game, and that connective passing showed up after the first quarter as the Lakers’ defense had to cover repeated kickouts and extra passes.

The clearest separator was the 3-point line. Golden State made 22 of 46 from deep, while Los Angeles went 11 of 39. The Warriors entered with a 46.2 three-point rate and 39 percent accuracy from 3, so this was not a stylistic departure. It was an amplified version of how they already wanted to play: high volume, quick decisions and enough passing to turn advantage creation into clean attempts.

Los Angeles still blocked 11 shots, an indicator that its size and back-line activity were present around the rim. But those blocks did not control the game because Golden State’s best offense came from spacing and perimeter volume rather than repeated interior challenges. The Warriors attempted 46 3s and 17 free throws, leaning into shot value and avoiding the type of half-court congestion that could have made the Lakers’ rim protection decisive.

Lakers’ turnover problem became the hinge

Los Angeles entered the night with a 16.1 turnover rate and 17.8 turnovers per game, and that weakness carried into the result. The Lakers committed 22 turnovers against 17 assists, a damaging ratio for a team built around Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves as primary creators.

Golden State turned that pressure into extra possessions with 11 steals. The Warriors already averaged 9.8 steals, and their defensive activity became more important after the first quarter because it prevented the Lakers from settling into the half-court rhythm that powered the opening 38-point burst.

The Lakers shot 33-for-82 overall and 11-for-39 from 3. Golden State was not dramatically better on total rebounds, finishing with 44 to Los Angeles’ 45, but the turnover margin and 3-point margin overwhelmed that small rebounding edge. The Warriors committed 17 turnovers themselves, consistent with a team that entered averaging 17 per game, but their passing volume and shooting efficiency gave those mistakes less weight.

Second quarter changed the matchup’s terms

The second quarter was the decisive stretch. Golden State outscored Los Angeles 38-15 in the period, erasing the entire first-quarter deficit before halftime. The Warriors then added a 32-27 edge in the third quarter and a 27-15 edge in the fourth, meaning Los Angeles was held to 15 points in two separate quarters after scoring 38 in the first.

That scoring pattern mattered because the Lakers entered averaging 123.2 points per game, compared with Golden State’s 117.6. Los Angeles also came in with a higher season scoring profile in the six-game advanced sample, averaging 118.5 points to Golden State’s 116.7. Instead, the Lakers finished at 95, their offense dragged down by turnovers, limited assist creation and inefficient perimeter shooting.

Golden State’s 112 points were below its season average, but the Warriors did not need a track meet after the first-quarter collapse. Their defense stabilized, their shot profile improved, and their passing generated enough 3-point volume to control the final three quarters.

Injuries and fatigue shaped the rotation context

Golden State played without Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis, while Gui Santos was listed as doubtful entering the game. Those absences left the Warriors without three rotation-level names and placed more creation and spacing responsibility on Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Y. Lendeborg, Brandon Williams and De'Anthony Melton.

The Lakers were on the second night of a back-to-back and had one day of rest, while the Warriors had two days of rest. Both teams were playing their fourth game in seven days, but the rest disadvantage sat with Los Angeles. The Lakers’ late-game offensive fade — 15 fourth-quarter points after 15 in the second — fit the broader shape of a team that opened fast but could not sustain its execution.

Los Angeles entered with Cameron Carr and Adou Thiero out, while Ziaire Williams was questionable because of left foot and heel injury management. Ziaire Williams had averaged 11.3 points across four games, so his status mattered for a Lakers team that needed more reliable secondary scoring once Golden State tightened the floor around the main actions.

Result cuts against the pregame profile

The outcome did not match the pregame lean. Los Angeles carried a 56.7 percent market implied probability, a better record at 4-1 and the stronger CourtFrame Power Index. Golden State entered 2-3, with a 1-1 home split and a 110-point home scoring average.

But the Warriors’ underlying strengths translated more directly once the game settled: a high 3-point rate, strong assist structure, active hands and enough rebounding to avoid being punished on the glass. The Lakers’ early-season strengths — elite true shooting, positive net rating and high-end scoring — were muted after the opening quarter because their possessions became too unstable.

Golden State improved to 3-3 with the win, while Los Angeles fell to 4-2. More important than the records was the manner of the result: the Warriors absorbed a 23-point first-quarter deficit, then held the Lakers to 57 points over the final three quarters while building their offense around 31 assists and 22 made 3s.

Game Data

Quarter-by-quarter score, Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Los Angeles Lakers3815271595
Golden State Warriors15383227112
Date
October 31, 2026
Competition
NBA
Venue
Chase Center
Status
Game Finished

CourtFrame model, before tip-off

Picked Los Angeles Lakers at 71.2% confidence — pick missed

Published before the game and scored against the result afterwards, hit or miss. How the model works

What the pick was built on

  • The Lakers have a 22.9-point advantage in last-10 net rating, alongside markedly higher TS% and eFG% and a slightly better defensive rating; their CPI advantage also supports an away-side edge

Top Performers

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors?

Golden State Warriors won 112–95, played on October 31, 2026 at Chase Center.

Who won Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors?

Golden State Warriors, by 17 points in the NBA.

Which quarter decided Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors?

The second quarter. Golden State Warriors won it 38–15, the largest swing of the game at 23 points.

What does CourtFrame's model predict for Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors?

The model favoured Los Angeles Lakers with 71.2% confidence, and that pick did not come in. Picks are published before tip-off and scored against the result.

Where was Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors played?

Chase Center, a NBA fixture.