Sports data scientist with a PhD in Statistical Analysis. Pioneered several new basketball analytics metrics now used across the industry.
The opening round of the 2026 NBA playoffs has offered a range of matchups, storylines and pressure points across the bracket. Beyond the series rankings, key questions remain around team adjustments and the postseason performances of players approaching free agency.
The Raptors edged the Cavaliers in Game 4 while enduring one of the coldest perimeter shooting performances ever seen in a playoff victory. Toronto shot just 13.3 percent from 3-point range, the lowest mark in NBA postseason history by a winning team.
The Philadelphia 76ers enter Game 4 looking to even their playoff series against the Boston Celtics. With the matchup shifting into a pivotal stage, both teams face another important test in a tightly contested postseason series.
Spurs star Victor Wembanyama has cleared the NBA’s concussion protocol and is set to play in Game 4 against the Trail Blazers. His return gives San Antonio its leading young centerpiece back in the lineup for a pivotal postseason matchup.
Boston enters Game 4 with a 2-1 series lead, a massive CourtFrame Power Index advantage and the cleaner recent efficiency profile. Philadelphia has home-court leverage at Xfinity Mobile Arena, but Joel Embiid’s doubtful status reshapes the expected value of nearly every matchup variable.
San Antonio enters Game 4 at Moda Center with a 2-1 series lead, a 62-20 regular-season profile and the stronger efficiency indicators, but Victor Wembanyama’s questionable tag materially changes the shape of the matchup. Portland’s path is narrower without Damian Lillard, yet its recent 115.5 offensive rating and 72.2 true shooting percentage over the analyzed sample give the Blazers a credible home-floor counterpunch.
With the first-round series tied 1-1, Game 3 at Scotiabank Arena profiles as a study in competing pressures: Cleveland brings the stronger efficiency indicators, while Toronto owns the setting and a cleaner turnover baseline. The market leans toward the Cavaliers at 60.8% implied probability, but the Raptors’ home scoring split and elite recent shooting keep the matchup more delicate than the records suggest.
Cheshire Phoenix enter April 26 with the stronger record, the cleaner efficiency profile and a major schedule advantage against a Leicester Riders team playing on one day of rest. The market gives Cheshire an 84.2% implied win probability, but the tactical question is whether Phoenix can keep the game in their preferred efficiency band against Leicester’s faster tempo.
Manchester Basketball arrive in Sheffield with the stronger efficiency profile, a cleaner defensive baseline and a significant CourtFrame Power Index advantage. The Sharks, however, have been materially better at Canon Medical Arena, where their scoring environment has looked far more stable than their recent 10-game sample.
The Pistons and Magic continue their playoff matchup with Game 3 carrying added weight in the series. Both teams enter the contest looking to seize momentum and gain control of the matchup.
The Phoenix Suns are at home for Game 4 against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Both teams return to the floor with the series spotlight firmly on a crucial postseason contest.
Houston Rockets coach Ime Udoka said Kevin Durant is improving from his injury, but his availability for Game 4 against the Los Angeles Lakers remains unclear. The Rockets face elimination Sunday night.
Atlanta returns to State Farm Arena up 2–0 in the series, but the market still leans New York (54.2% implied win probability). Game 3 sets up as a pace-and-efficiency knife fight: both teams have posted extreme shooting efficiency over the last 10 games, with the Knicks carrying the stronger net profile and CPI edge.
Phoenix enters as the implied favorite (63.6%) in a matchup with no significant injuries on either side, leaving the handicap to environment, pricing, and game-state volatility. With spreads clustering tightly around a one-to-four point Mercury edge and totals concentrated in the high-150s/low-160s, this profiles as a possession-by-possession efficiency test rather than a talent-mismatch blowout.
Oklahoma City arrives in Phoenix up 2–0 with a massive recent-form efficiency edge: a +22.2 net rating over its last 10 games analyzed versus Phoenix’s -6.2. With both teams on identical rest profiles and clean injury reports, Game 3 tilts toward shot-quality and turnover math—areas where the Thunder have been elite.
New York opens at Barclays Center with the market assigning a 63.1% win probability to the Liberty versus 36.9% for Indiana. With no significant injuries reported and no usable form, splits, or efficiency data in the provided slate, this preview focuses on what the odds imply—and how to translate that into expected-value thinking for spread and total markets.
Game 1 at Roig Arena pairs Valencia’s perfect recent home split (4–0, 105.8 avg pts) against Real Madrid’s perfect recent road split (5–0, 92.4 avg pts). The market leans slightly Valencia (54.7% implied), but the efficiency data from the last 10 games suggests Madrid’s two-way edge could overwhelm a one-possession spread.
Raptors guard Immanuel Quickley aggravated his strained right hamstring during his return-to-play process and will not be available for Toronto’s first-round playoff series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The team announced the update Friday.
The Oklahoma City bombing remains a defining trauma for the city three decades later. Since arriving in 2008, the Thunder have worked to honor that history while helping fans embrace a new civic identity through basketball.
Victor Wembanyama will travel with the San Antonio Spurs to Portland for games this weekend while he continues progressing through the NBA’s concussion protocol. His availability remains tied to completing the required steps.
