Zalgiris Kaunas hosts Anadolu Efes on October 16, 2026, at Zalgirio Arena in Round 6 of the regular season, with both teams trying to move out of the bottom half of the Euroleague table. Zalgiris enters at 2-3, while Anadolu Efes is 1-4 and still searching for its first away win after an 0-3 road start.
The market gives Zalgiris Kaunas a 69.5 percent implied probability across nine bookmakers, with Anadolu Efes at 30.5 percent. The spread board centers around a modest Zalgiris advantage, while totals sit in a high-scoring range, with numbers stretching through the upper 160s and low 170s.
Efficiency Profile Favors Zalgiris
Zalgiris has scored 84 points per game through five games, ahead of Anadolu Efes at 81.4. The more important gap is in shot quality and conversion: Zalgiris owns a 59.3 true shooting percentage and 54.5 effective field goal percentage, while Anadolu Efes sits at 56.3 true shooting and 50.2 effective field goal percentage.
That difference is reinforced by perimeter accuracy. Zalgiris is shooting 40 percent from three with a 37.1 three-point rate, giving its offense a cleaner spacing profile. Anadolu Efes is taking a larger share of its shots from deep with a 40.6 three-point rate, but it has converted only 31.3 percent from three.
The offensive rating gap is also meaningful. Zalgiris has produced 98.8 points per 100 possessions, compared with 92.9 for Anadolu Efes. Neither team has a positive net rating, but Zalgiris’ minus-2.7 net rating is stronger than Anadolu Efes’ minus-4.8.
Pace and Turnovers Could Shape the Game
Anadolu Efes plays faster, averaging an 87.6 pace compared with Zalgiris at 85. That tempo difference matters because Efes has not paired its speed with clean ball security. Anadolu Efes has a 17.6 turnover rate and averages 15.4 turnovers, while Zalgiris has a 16.7 turnover rate and averages 14.2 turnovers.
Zalgiris also has the better defensive disruption balance in this matchup if it can force Efes into rushed possessions. Anadolu Efes averages 7.6 steals, more than Zalgiris’ 6.4, but Efes’ own turnover profile gives Zalgiris opportunities to control the possession math without needing to dramatically increase pace.
Both teams move the ball at similar rates. Zalgiris has a 63.7 assist rate and averages 18.6 assists, while Anadolu Efes has a 63.8 assist rate and averages 17.6 assists. The difference is that Zalgiris has converted those assisted possessions into better shooting efficiency.
Frontcourt Edge: Rebounding and Interior Production
Zalgiris has a clear rebounding advantage entering this matchup. Its 54.3 rebound percentage and 32.8 rebounds per game lead Anadolu Efes, which has a 46.9 rebound percentage and averages 30 rebounds.
Jonas Valanciunas gives Zalgiris a reliable interior anchor at 11.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game. Azuolas Tubelis adds 12.2 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assists per game, giving Zalgiris two frontcourt players who can support the offense without requiring the entire shot diet to flow through the perimeter.
Anadolu Efes counters with Dario Saric, who is averaging 12.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 1.6 assists. Saric’s role is central because Efes needs frontcourt scoring while also narrowing the rebounding gap that has separated the teams through five games.
Backcourt Creation on Both Sides
Carsen Edwards has been Zalgiris’ most consistent scoring option, averaging 17.4 points and 3 assists across five games. His shot creation is especially important against an Efes defense that has allowed 97.7 points per 100 possessions.
Nigel Williams-Goss has played one game and averaged 14 points, 6 assists and 2 rebounds, giving Zalgiris another organizer if his role expands. Sterling Brown has added 9.8 points, 2.2 rebounds and 1.2 assists, rounding out a perimeter group that can benefit from Zalgiris’ 40 percent three-point shooting.
Anadolu Efes has multiple creators but less continuity in its leading guards. Cameron Payne is averaging 15 points and 3.5 assists over two games, while Mike James is averaging 15 points, 4 assists and 2.3 rebounds over three games. Matthew Strazel has played all five games and is averaging 12.2 points and 3 assists, giving Efes a steadier rotation piece alongside Jordan Loyd, who is averaging 9.8 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2 assists.
Rest and Availability
Zalgiris enters with two days of rest and two games in the last seven days. Anadolu Efes has one day of rest, two games in the last seven days and is on a back-to-back.
Neither team has significant injuries reported, so the rest gap becomes the main availability-related factor. For Anadolu Efes, the back-to-back is especially relevant because its offense already carries a 17.6 turnover rate and relies on guards who have played limited game samples so far.
CPI View and Matchup Outlook
CourtFrame Power Index gives Zalgiris Kaunas a 34.81 CPI, ranked 13th, with a 0.8 trend. Anadolu Efes is at 15.06 CPI, ranked 17th, with a 1.0 trend. The CPI differential is 19.8 in favor of Zalgiris.
Zalgiris’ path is direct: protect the ball well enough, maintain its three-point efficiency and use its rebounding edge to limit Efes’ extra possessions. Anadolu Efes needs its higher pace to create rhythm without feeding Zalgiris transition chances, and it needs better three-point conversion than its current 31.3 percent mark to offset the rebounding deficit.
The matchup tilts toward Zalgiris because its statistical advantages are connected: better shooting efficiency, stronger rebounding and a slightly cleaner turnover profile. Anadolu Efes has enough backcourt scoring to challenge that edge, but doing so on the road, on a back-to-back, and with an 0-3 away record makes the margin for execution narrow at Zalgirio Arena.