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Las Vegas Aces W Flip Third Quarter Into 87-77 Semi-finals Win Over Golden State Valkyries W

Las Vegas Aces W beat Golden State Valkyries W 87-77 at Michelob Ultra Arena, using a 17-7 third quarter to take control after trailing by nine at halftime. The result came despite Golden State Valkyries W entering with the stronger CourtFrame Power Index profile and a 2-1 series lead in the Semi-finals.

CourtFrame
5 min read

Key Takeaways

  • 1Golden State Valkyries W visit Las Vegas Aces W at Michelob Ultra Arena on October 10, 2026.
  • 2The CourtFrame model picks Golden State Valkyries W at 50.75% confidence.

Las Vegas Aces W turned a nine-point halftime deficit into an 87-77 win over Golden State Valkyries W on October 10, 2026, at Michelob Ultra Arena, reshaping the Semi-finals through a decisive third quarter.

Golden State Valkyries W led 19-16 after the first quarter and stretched the margin with a 26-point second quarter, taking a 45-36 lead into halftime. Las Vegas Aces W answered with the game’s defining stretch, holding Golden State Valkyries W to seven points in the third quarter while scoring 17, then closing the game with an 18-point fourth quarter.

The win moved the Semi-finals series score to 2-2 after Golden State Valkyries W entered the night ahead 2-1 in the best-of-seven matchup. Las Vegas Aces W did it with no significant injuries reported, matching a Golden State Valkyries W team that also entered without a significant injury designation.

The third quarter changed the game

The clearest separation came immediately after halftime. Golden State Valkyries W had scored 45 points across the first two quarters, including 26 in the second, but Las Vegas Aces W held them to seven points in the third. That defensive quarter erased the halftime gap and shifted the game into the Aces’ preferred possession-by-possession structure.

Las Vegas Aces W entered with a 90.9 defensive rating across their last 10 games, while Golden State Valkyries W carried an 87.9 mark over the same span. The game reflected the weight of both defenses, but the Aces’ third-quarter containment was the difference between Golden State Valkyries W controlling the tempo and Las Vegas Aces W forcing a half-court grind.

Golden State Valkyries W still generated pressure defensively, finishing with 12 steals and 11 turnovers. Las Vegas Aces W committed 15 turnovers, a higher total than their 11.2 average over the last 10 games, but the Aces absorbed those mistakes by winning the most important defensive stretch of the night.

Pre-game indicators favored Golden State, but Las Vegas had the scoring ceiling

Golden State Valkyries W entered with the stronger CourtFrame Power Index profile: 95.46, ranked No. 2, compared with Las Vegas Aces W at 71.43, ranked No. 8. Golden State Valkyries W also had the better recent net rating at plus-5.4 across 10 games, while Las Vegas Aces W was plus-2.7.

That edge aligned with Golden State Valkyries W’s broader season profile. The Valkyries entered 32-12, slightly ahead of the Aces’ 31-13 record, and had a 54.0 rebound percentage across their last 10 games compared with Las Vegas Aces W at 46.7. Golden State Valkyries W also outrebounded Las Vegas Aces W 43-35 in this game.

Las Vegas Aces W, however, entered as the higher-scoring team at 91.5 points per game, compared with Golden State Valkyries W at 82.2. At home, the Aces averaged 90.2 points and had a 17-8 record. Their 87 points did not reach that home scoring average, but it was enough because the defense held Golden State Valkyries W below their season scoring average.

Shot profile and free throws kept both teams within reach

Las Vegas Aces W made seven 3-pointers on 20 attempts, while Golden State Valkyries W made six on 23 attempts. The Aces entered with stronger recent 3-point accuracy at 38.8 percent across 10 games, while Golden State Valkyries W entered at 34.6 percent with a higher 3-point rate of 40.3.

Free-throw volume was nearly even. Golden State Valkyries W went 20-for-22 at the line, while Las Vegas Aces W went 18-for-22. That kept Golden State Valkyries W in contact despite the third-quarter collapse and gave Las Vegas Aces W enough scoring stability to close the game without relying solely on perimeter shooting.

Golden State Valkyries W finished with 16 assists, three more than Las Vegas Aces W’s 13, which fit their recent profile as the higher-assist-rate team. The Valkyries entered with a 62.2 assist rate across their last 10 games, compared with 53.6 for the Aces. But the assist edge did not overcome the third-quarter scoring drought.

Aces’ experience mattered in a tight Semi-finals setting

Las Vegas Aces W entered with 28 games of playoff experience compared with eight for Golden State Valkyries W. That gap did not decide the first half, when Golden State Valkyries W controlled the scoreboard, but it showed in how Las Vegas Aces W responded after halftime and managed the fourth quarter after taking momentum.

The Aces also had the cleaner injury picture needed to lean on their core. A. Wilson entered averaging 26.7 points and 8.7 rebounds across 31 games, while J. Young and C. Gray entered with averages of 18.4 and 17.0 points over five games apiece. Golden State Valkyries W countered with Gabby Williams at 16.0 points per game, V. Burton at 12.2 points and 5.7 assists, and Janelle Salaun at 11.7 points.

Both teams had identical rest profiles with two days off and two games in the previous seven days, removing schedule fatigue as a meaningful separator. The difference came in execution after halftime: Las Vegas Aces W produced the sharper defensive quarter, protected the final margin and turned a 45-36 halftime deficit into a 10-point win.

Game Data

Quarter-by-quarter score, Golden State Valkyries W at Las Vegas Aces W
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Golden State Valkyries W162017181687
Las Vegas Aces W1926719677
Date
October 10, 2026
Competition
NBA W
Stage
WNBA - Semi-finals
Venue
Michelob Ultra Arena
Status
After Over Time

CourtFrame model, before tip-off

Picked Golden State Valkyries W at 50.75% confidence

Published before the game and scored against the result afterwards, hit or miss. How the model works

What the pick was built on

  • Golden State has the stronger season record and a substantial CPI advantage; its last-10 net rating is also narrowly better, though the Aces have the higher TS% and eFG% and a home-court edge
  • Golden State’s slightly stronger recent net rating, better defensive rating, and substantially higher CPI support a narrow away edge, though Las Vegas’s home scoring, star production, and greater playoff experience make this a close call
  • Golden State’s stronger CPI and slightly better last-10 net rating, driven by the better defensive rating, give it a modest edge; both teams have equal rest, so fatigue offers no advantage
  • Neither team reports significant injuries, so there is no injury-driven production loss or availability edge

Top Performers

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Frequently Asked Questions

When do Golden State Valkyries W and Las Vegas Aces W play?

October 10, 2026 at Michelob Ultra Arena, in the NBA W.

What does CourtFrame's model predict for Golden State Valkyries W vs Las Vegas Aces W?

The model favours Golden State Valkyries W with 50.75% confidence. Every pick is published before tip-off and scored against the result afterwards.

Where was Golden State Valkyries W vs Las Vegas Aces W played?

Michelob Ultra Arena, a NBA W fixture at the WNBA - Semi-finals stage.