CourtFrame
Pricing
NBA W

Las Vegas Aces vs Golden State Valkyries

Prediction & preview · Friday, October 9, 2026 • Michelob Ultra Arena

CourtFrame model · Toss-up

Golden State Valkyries W

51%Win probability
Las Vegas Aces W 49%51% Golden State Valkyries W

Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice.

Pro Insight

Where the value is on this game

Pro compares our model with every bookmaker's price and flags the bets where the gap is big enough to matter — with the edge, expected value, stake size and a grade.

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7 Models4 of 7 favour Golden State Valkyries W
  • Elo
    53%
  • Logistic
    48%
  • Logistic v2Pub
    51%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    54%
  • Gradient boosting
    49%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    50%
  • LLM panel
    60%

Power Index

Las Vegas Aces W83.1#4
Golden State Valkyries W93.1#2
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5

Las Vegas Aces W32–18
WWLWL
6 days rest
Golden State Valkyries W36–13
WWLWW
6 days rest

Game Preview

Las Vegas Aces host Golden State Valkyries at Michelob Ultra Arena on Friday, October 9 in the NBA W (semi-finals). Las Vegas Aces are 32–18 this season, Golden State Valkyries 36–13. In the CourtFrame Power Index, Las Vegas Aces are 4th at 83.1 and Golden State Valkyries 2nd at 93.1.

Key Factors to Watch

  • 14 of 7 CourtFrame models make Golden State Valkyries the favourite.
  • 2Power Index: Golden State Valkyries 2nd, Las Vegas Aces 4th.
  • 3Las Vegas Aces: W-W-L-W-L in the last 5.
  • 4Golden State Valkyries: W-W-L-W-W in the last 5.

Model Outlook(Win probability: 51%)

The CourtFrame model has Golden State Valkyries winning 51% of the time. Across our 7 models the range is 48–60%.

Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice. How the model works

Matchup Insights

Pace
Fast vs Slow92.4 vs 87.0
Schedule EdgeEven
Home/Away Win%66.7% / 65.2%

Game Info

League
NBA W
Date
Fri, Oct 9
Time
9:30 PM EDT
Venue
Michelob Ultra Arena
Stage
Semi-finals