March has long been defined by the teams no one saw coming — the mid-major runs that cracked brackets and turned anonymous rosters into household names. Lately, those Cinderella stories have been harder to spot, with power-conference programs increasingly controlling the NCAA tournament’s biggest stages.
A changing March backdrop
The familiar formula of chaos — lower seeds knocking off established brands in waves — has appeared less frequently, raising a straightforward question: where did the upset runs go? The tournament still delivers tense finishes and isolated surprises, but the broader feeling of widespread disruption has been muted as the sport’s heavyweights keep advancing.
Why the balance looks different
The current landscape has shifted in ways that favor the programs with the most resources and visibility. With the rise of NIL, roster continuity and player movement have become central parts of team-building, and the advantages held by power-conference schools have been more difficult for smaller programs to overcome. The result has been a tournament that, more often than not, funnels toward familiar names.
What it means for the tournament
The appeal of March has never relied solely on champions — it’s also about the unexpected. As power conferences continue to dominate, the tournament’s signature unpredictability has felt less constant, even as the stakes and intensity remain unchanged.