CourtFrame
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Euroleague

Real Madrid vs Lyon-Villeurbanne

Prediction & preview · Thursday, October 15, 2026 • Movistar Arena

CourtFrame model · Clear favourite

Real Madrid

Projected margin: Real Madrid by 10.8

82%Win probability
Real Madrid 82%18% Lyon-Villeurbanne

Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice.

Pro Insight

Where the value is on this game

Pro compares our model with every bookmaker's price and flags the bets where the gap is big enough to matter — with the edge, expected value, stake size and a grade.

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7 Models7 of 7 favour Real Madrid
  • Elo
    85%
  • Logistic
    82%
  • Logistic v2Pub
    82%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    81%
  • Gradient boosting
    83%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    83%
  • LLM panel
    51%

Power Index

Real Madrid18.3↓5.7#15
Lyon-Villeurbanne39.9↓16.2#8
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Real Madrid1–3
LLLLW
7 days rest
Lyon-Villeurbanne2–2
LWLLW

Game Preview

Real Madrid host Lyon-Villeurbanne at Movistar Arena on Thursday, October 15 in the Euroleague. Real Madrid are 1–3 this season, Lyon-Villeurbanne 2–2. In the CourtFrame Power Index, Real Madrid are 15th at 18.3 and Lyon-Villeurbanne 8th at 39.9.

Key Factors to Watch

  • 17 of 7 CourtFrame models make Real Madrid the favourite.
  • 2Power Index: Lyon-Villeurbanne 8th, Real Madrid 15th.
  • 3Real Madrid: L-L-L-L-W in the last 5 league games.
  • 4Lyon-Villeurbanne: L-W-L-L-W in the last 5 league games.

Model Outlook(Win probability: 82%)

The CourtFrame model has Real Madrid winning 82% of the time, by 10.8 points. Across our 7 models the range is 51–85%.

Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice. How the model works

Matchup Insights

Pace
Similar Pace87.0 vs 88.6
Home/Away Win%100% / 50%

Game Info

Date
Thu, Oct 15
Time
7:00 PM UTC
Venue
Movistar Arena
Stage
Regular season · Round 6