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Bilbao’s Shot Profile and Ball Security Hold Off San Pablo Burgos

Bilbao beat San Pablo Burgos 96-87 at Bilbao Arena in Round 3 of the regular season, moving to 2-1 while San Pablo Burgos fell to 1-2. The home side overcame a rebounding deficit by winning the possession-control battle, committing only eight turnovers and making 13 three-pointers.

CourtFrame
3 min read

Key Takeaways

  • 1Bilbao beat San Pablo Burgos 96–87 at Bilbao Arena, a 9-point margin.
  • 2The third quarter decided it: Bilbao won it 30–25, a 5-point swing.
  • 3San Pablo Burgos led 45–44 at the break, so Bilbao won this one after trailing at halftime.
  • 4The two teams combined for 183 points.
  • 5The CourtFrame model picked San Pablo Burgos at 56.74% confidence — the pick missed.

Bilbao defeated San Pablo Burgos 96-87 on October 11, 2026, at Bilbao Arena in Round 3 of the regular season, improving to 2-1 while San Pablo Burgos dropped to 1-2.

The result followed the pre-game indicators. Bilbao entered with a 2-0 home record and 101.5 points per game at Bilbao Arena, while San Pablo Burgos came in 1-1 away from home with 90.5 points per road game. Bilbao also carried the stronger CourtFrame Power Index profile, ranking seventh at 61.08 compared with San Pablo Burgos at 41.94 and 11th.

Bilbao’s Efficiency Survives the Glass

San Pablo Burgos won the rebounding margin 35-29 and shot 34-for-70 from the field, but Bilbao controlled the higher-value areas of the box score. Bilbao went 31-for-64 overall, made 13 of 34 from three-point range and converted 21 of 27 free throws.

The difference was not volume alone; it was shot value and mistake avoidance. Bilbao’s 13 made threes doubled San Pablo Burgos’ seven, and the home team added a nine-point advantage at the foul line. San Pablo Burgos’ 12-for-16 free-throw night was efficient, but Bilbao’s 27 attempts gave it a more reliable scoring base in a game decided by nine.

Bilbao also committed only eight turnovers, three fewer than San Pablo Burgos. That mattered against a Burgos team that had entered with 14.3 turnovers per game and 7.3 steals per game. Bilbao did not allow the visitors to turn defensive activity into enough transition or extra-possession pressure to offset the shooting gap.

The Third Quarter Shifted the Game

San Pablo Burgos led 20-19 after the first quarter and outscored Bilbao 25-25 in a level second period, leaving the visitors ahead 45-44 at halftime. Bilbao then produced the decisive stretch with a 30-point third quarter, outscoring San Pablo Burgos 30-25 to move in front entering the fourth.

The closing period reinforced the same pattern. Bilbao held San Pablo Burgos to 17 fourth-quarter points while scoring 22 of its own. After San Pablo Burgos scored 25 points in both the second and third quarters, Bilbao’s defense tightened enough late to prevent the visitors from matching the home team’s shot-making.

Pre-Game Strengths Carried Into the Result

Bilbao entered averaging 101.3 points per game through three games, with five players averaging double figures: Darrun Hilliard at 17 points per game, Margiris Normantas at 14.7, Harald Frey at 12.3, M. Krampelj at 11 and Tryggvi Hlinason at 11. That balanced scoring profile was reflected in a team performance built around 19 assists and only eight turnovers.

San Pablo Burgos also had multiple scoring options coming in, led by D. Steward at 15.7 points per game, C. Audige at 13, Sekou Doumbouya at 12, Ziga Samar at 11.7 and Balsa Koprivica at 11.7. The visitors generated 87 points and 17 assists, but their perimeter output lagged behind Bilbao’s. San Pablo Burgos finished 7-for-20 from three, while Bilbao’s 13-for-34 shooting from deep created the central scoring separation.

The matchup also carried no injury imbalance. Bilbao had no significant injuries reported, and San Pablo Burgos had no significant injuries reported. Both teams entered with seven days of rest and no games in the previous seven days, leaving execution rather than availability or schedule fatigue as the defining factor.

What the Result Means

Bilbao’s 96 points came slightly below its early-season average of 101.3, but the win still reinforced the profile that made the home team the stronger side entering the night: efficient perimeter volume, strong free-throw pressure and clean offensive possessions.

San Pablo Burgos showed enough interior and rebounding presence to stay competitive, particularly with a 35-29 edge on the boards and 34 made field goals. But the visitors’ 11 turnovers, seven made threes and 12 made free throws left too little margin against a Bilbao team that protected the ball and generated more efficient scoring opportunities.

Game Data

Quarter-by-quarter score, San Pablo Burgos at Bilbao
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
San Pablo Burgos2025251787
Bilbao1925302296
Date
October 11, 2026
Competition
ACB
Stage
3
Venue
Bilbao Arena
Status
Game Finished

CourtFrame model, before tip-off

Picked San Pablo Burgos at 56.74% confidence — pick missed

Published before the game and scored against the result afterwards, hit or miss. How the model works

What the pick was built on

  • Bilbao has the stronger recent efficiency profile: its net rating is 15 points per 100 possessions better, with a 5.5-point TS% advantage, and the home setting supports a modest edge
  • Bilbao’s stronger recent efficiency profile (105.6 ORtg, 97.5 DRtg) and home court point toward a narrow home edge, despite the CPI ranking favoring Burgos
  • No significant injuries are reported, so there is no injury-driven scoring or lineup adjustment
  • Bilbao’s stronger recent efficiency profile—especially its edge in true shooting and its better offensive and defensive ratings—supports a home win, with its 1-0 home start adding a modest venue advantage

Top Performers

Full box score →

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of San Pablo Burgos vs Bilbao?

Bilbao won 96–87, played on October 11, 2026 at Bilbao Arena.

Who won San Pablo Burgos vs Bilbao?

Bilbao, by 9 points in the ACB (3).

Which quarter decided San Pablo Burgos vs Bilbao?

The third quarter. Bilbao won it 30–25, the largest swing of the game at 5 points.

What does CourtFrame's model predict for San Pablo Burgos vs Bilbao?

The model favoured San Pablo Burgos with 56.74% confidence, and that pick did not come in. Picks are published before tip-off and scored against the result.

Where was San Pablo Burgos vs Bilbao played?

Bilbao Arena, a ACB fixture at the 3 stage.