Anadolu Efes hosts Virtus Bologna on November 13, 2026, at Basketbol Gelisim Merkezi in Round 11 of the regular season, with both teams sitting at 4-6. The matchup carries early-table weight because the records are identical, but the underlying profiles separate the teams more clearly than the standings do.
Efes enters with an 84.2 points-per-game average, a 60.5 true shooting percentage and a 100.8 offensive rating across 10 games. Virtus is scoring slightly more at 85.6 points per game, but its 55.3 true shooting percentage and 95.0 offensive rating show a less efficient attack despite the higher raw scoring output.
The market gives Anadolu Efes a 64.4 percent implied probability, compared with 35.6 percent for Virtus Bologna, across nine bookmakers. CourtFrame Power Index also favors Efes, with a 57.06 CPI and No. 13 ranking against Virtus’ 44.02 CPI and No. 16 ranking, a 13-point differential.
Tempo will shape the game state
This game starts with a clear pace contrast. Anadolu Efes plays at 83.5 possessions, while Virtus Bologna pushes to 90.1. That gap matters because Virtus’ scoring profile is more volume-driven, while Efes has been more efficient in the half court and in shot conversion.
Efes’ offensive advantage is rooted in shot quality and finishing. The home side has a 53.0 effective field goal percentage, shoots 46.5 percent from the field and 32.7 percent from three, and pairs that with an 82.1 percent mark at the free-throw line. Virtus sits at 50.6 effective field goal percentage, 44.3 percent from the field, 31.0 percent from three and 80.7 percent at the line.
The three-point volume is nearly identical. Efes has a 40.4 three-point rate, while Virtus is at 40.7. With both teams taking a similar share of attempts from deep, the separation comes from efficiency and ball movement rather than shot distribution.
Efes’ passing versus Virtus’ ball security
Anadolu Efes owns a major assist-rate edge at 68.1 percent, compared with Virtus Bologna’s 56.1 percent. That aligns with Efes averaging 19.2 assists, led by Cameron Payne at 4.3 assists per game, Matthew Strazel at 4.1 and Mike James at 4.0 through three games.
The tradeoff is turnover pressure. Efes has a 16.8 turnover rate and averages 14.0 turnovers, while Virtus is cleaner at 14.2 percent and 12.8 turnovers per game. For Efes, the central question is whether its passing advantage creates enough high-value looks to offset the extra giveaways.
Virtus’ backcourt structure runs through Marcus Carr, who averages 12.2 points and 4.9 assists. His ability to organize at a faster pace will be important against an Efes defense allowing a 103.8 defensive rating. Virtus has a 99.2 defensive rating, which is stronger than Efes’ mark, but its offensive rating trails by 5.8 points.
Home floor and rest tilt toward Efes
Anadolu Efes has been better at Basketbol Gelisim Merkezi, going 3-2 at home with 89.8 points per game. Virtus Bologna is 2-3 away from home and averages 84.8 points in road games.
The schedule also favors Efes. Anadolu Efes has had eight days of rest and no games in the last seven days, while Virtus Bologna has had six days of rest and one game in the last seven days. Neither team reports significant injuries, so rotation availability should not dilute the matchup.
Efes’ top scoring option has been Cameron Payne, who averages 17.6 points and 4.3 assists in seven games. Mike James adds 15.0 points and 4.0 assists through three games, while Dario Saric gives Efes a frontcourt anchor at 11.4 points and 6.2 rebounds over 10 games.
Virtus counters with a balanced scoring group. Derrick Alston Jr. leads at 12.8 points per game, A. Diarra averages 12.3 points and 7.0 rebounds, Marcus Carr adds 12.2 points and 4.9 assists, and Wendell Moore contributes 11.7 points and 4.5 rebounds.
Rebounding is Virtus’ clearest pressure point
Virtus Bologna has the stronger rebounding profile, with a 50.4 rebound percentage and 35.4 rebounds per game. Anadolu Efes is at 48.4 percent and 30.4 rebounds per game. A. Diarra’s 7.0 rebounds per game gives Virtus the most productive rebounder in the matchup, while Saric leads Efes at 6.2.
That edge is important because Virtus needs possessions to compensate for its lower efficiency. If Bologna controls the glass while keeping turnovers down, it can turn the game into a possession-count contest rather than an efficiency contest.
Efes’ defensive task is to prevent Virtus from converting pace into volume. Virtus averages 85.6 points despite a 95.0 offensive rating, which reflects the impact of its 90.1 pace. If Efes slows the game closer to its 83.5-possession environment, its shooting efficiency and home scoring split become more decisive.
What decides the matchup
The key tension is whether Anadolu Efes can impose efficiency over tempo. Efes has the better true shooting percentage, effective field goal percentage, offensive rating, assist rate, home scoring split and CPI profile. Virtus has the better pace, rebounding percentage, turnover rate and defensive rating.
The total market has numbers clustered from the mid-160s into the high-170s, with 173.5 priced evenly at 1.90 on both sides. That range reflects the conflict between Virtus’ speed and Efes’ more controlled pace.
If Efes protects the ball well enough, its 60.5 true shooting percentage and 68.1 assist rate give it the cleaner offensive path. If Virtus turns the game into a faster, more physical rebounding contest, its 35.4 rebounds per game and lower turnover rate give it a viable road formula.