Prediction
How it works · Track recordOur pick · Lean
Defensor
Projected margin: Defensor by 3.6
59%Win probability
Bigua 41%Bookmakers 57–4359% Defensor
Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice.
Pro Insight
Where the value is on this game
Pro compares our model with every bookmaker's price and flags the bets where the gap is big enough to matter — with the edge, expected value, stake size and a grade.
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7 Models6 of 7 favour Bigua
- Elo63%
- Logistic71%
- Logistic v253%
- Logistic v2 + players53%
- Gradient boosting55%
- Gradient boosting + players52%
- LLM panelPub41%
Power Index
Bigua70.2↓29.8#2
Defensor100.0↑8.5#1
Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings
Form · Last 5 · incl. last season
Bigua3–0
LLWWW
2 days restDefensor1–0
WLLLW
Game Preview
Bigua host Defensor at Arena Bigua on Thursday, October 29 in the Liga Uruguaya. Bigua are 3–0 this season, Defensor 1–0. Bigua have won their last 3 league games. In the CourtFrame Power Index, Bigua are 2nd at 70.2 and Defensor 1st at 100.0.
Key Factors to Watch
- 1Our models split from the pick: 6 of 7 favour Bigua.
- 2Power Index: Defensor 1st, Bigua 2nd.
- 3Bigua: L-L-W-W-W in the last 5 league games.
- 4Defensor: W-L-L-L-W in the last 5 league games.
Model Outlook(Win probability: 59%)
Our pick has Defensor winning 59% of the time, by 3.6 points. Across our 7 models the range is 29–59%.
Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice. How the model works
Game Info
- League
- Liga Uruguaya
- Date
- Thu, Oct 29
- Time
- 10:15 PM UTC
- Venue
- Arena Bigua