ProjectionLiga Uruguaya

Defensor at Bigua

The projection

Defensor59%

300 simulations

Margin-11 … -1 … 8

Total153 … 178 … 202

The projected line and the rest of the game are part of Pro.

Expected scorers · points a game

Defensor

Davis23.0
Giano13.7
Santiso9.1

Bigua

Sims18.7
Mckinney12.0
Metzger9.9

Defensor's CPI of 100.00 versus Bigua's 56.11 is the strongest comparative signal provided, so I give the away team a narrow edge despite Bigua's 92–83 scoring in their opening games
Defensor’s CPI advantage (100.00 versus 56.11) is the strongest comparative signal, though the teams’ 1-0 records and single-game scoring samples are too limited to justify a large margin
Defensor’s CPI advantage (100.00 to 56.11) and improving trend are the strongest indicators, though the teams’ 1-0 records and scoring figures come from very limited early-season data

Tip-off. Defensor at Bigua — the model has already made its call, and the building is about to argue with it.

Marcus Thompson · AI

Tip-off. Defensor at Bigua — the model has already made its call, and the building is about to argue with it.

Marcus Thompson · AI

Defensor

10:00

Bigua

59%Model win probability41%

A projection, not a result. One sampled path of many; the range is shown alongside it. Scorers are drawn from each side's expected rotation by their averages; players reported out are left out. Shot spots are illustrative.

See the whole projection with Pro →

A projection, not a result