Urunday vs Penarol

Prediction & preview · Thursday, October 22, 2026 • Urunday Universitario

Penarol

Away

See how the model expects this to go

Prediction

How it works · Track record

Our pick · Lean

Urunday

Projected margin: Urunday by 0.2

58%Win probability

Urunday 58%42% Penarol

Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice.

Pro Insight

Where the value is on this game

Pro compares our model with every bookmaker's price and flags the bets where the gap is big enough to matter — with the edge, expected value, stake size and a grade.

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7 Models6 of 7 favour Penarol

Elo
62%
Logistic
65%
Logistic v2
56%
Logistic v2 + players
54%
Gradient boosting
53%
Gradient boosting + players
52%
LLM panelPub
42%

Power Index · 2025-26 final

Urunday46.6#7

Penarol100.0#1

Components scaled within the league that season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Urunday

WWLLL

Penarol

WLLWW

Game Preview

Urunday host Penarol at Urunday Universitario on Thursday, October 22 in the Liga Uruguaya. Urunday have lost their last 3 league games. In the CourtFrame Power Index (last season's final), Urunday are 7th at 46.6 and Penarol 1st at 100.0.

Key Factors to Watch

1Our models split from the pick: 6 of 7 favour Penarol.
2Power Index (last season): Penarol 1st, Urunday 7th.
3Urunday: W-W-L-L-L in the last 5 league games.
4Penarol: W-L-L-W-W in the last 5 league games.

Model Outlook(Win probability: 58%)

Our pick has Urunday winning 58% of the time, by 0.2 points. Across our 7 models the range is 35–58%.

Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice. How the model works

Game Info

League: Liga Uruguaya
Date: Thu, Oct 22
Time: 12:30 AM UTC
Venue: Urunday Universitario

Team Pages

Urunday

Penarol