NBA
Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks
Prediction & preview · Wednesday, October 21, 2026 • Toyota Center
Prediction
How it works · Track recordOur pick · Lean
Houston Rockets
Projected margin: Houston Rockets by 0.9
59%Win probability
Houston Rockets 59%41% Dallas Mavericks
Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice.
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7 Models7 of 7 favour Houston Rockets
- Elo78%
- Logistic79%
- Logistic v275%
- Logistic v2 + players75%
- Gradient boosting72%
- Gradient boosting + players74%
- LLM panelPub59%
Power Index · 2025-26 final
Houston Rockets78.7#8
Dallas Mavericks35.7#25
Components scaled within the league that season. Rankings
Form · Last 5 · incl. last season
Houston Rockets
LLWWL
Dallas Mavericks
WLLLW
Game Preview
Houston Rockets host Dallas Mavericks at Toyota Center on Wednesday, October 21 in the NBA. In the CourtFrame Power Index (last season's final), Houston Rockets are 8th at 78.7 and Dallas Mavericks 25th at 35.7.
Key Factors to Watch
- 17 of 7 CourtFrame models make Houston Rockets the favourite.
- 2Power Index (last season): Houston Rockets 8th, Dallas Mavericks 25th.
- 3Houston Rockets: L-L-W-W-L in the last 5 league games.
- 4Dallas Mavericks: W-L-L-L-W in the last 5 league games.
Model Outlook(Win probability: 59%)
Our pick has Houston Rockets winning 59% of the time, by 0.9 points. Across our 7 models the range is 59–79%.
Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice. How the model works
Game Info
- League
- NBA
- Date
- Wed, Oct 21
- Time
- 8:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- Toyota Center
- Stage
- Regular season