Manresa did not have the résumé edge, the market edge or the analytics edge entering Game 2. It still has the series edge.
Behind a 104-102 win over Valencia on Sunday at Pavelló Nou Congost, Manresa moved ahead 2-0 in the best-of-seven series and delivered the sharpest result of the round so far. The home side entered 12-17, carrying a 44.40 CPI that ranked ninth, while Valencia arrived at 21-8 with a 75.40 CPI, third in the competition. The market reflected that gap: Valencia was priced with a 66.6 percent implied probability across 11 bookmakers.
None of it mattered late. Manresa outscored Valencia 26-20 in the fourth quarter, turning a game defined by Valencia’s offensive polish into one decided by Manresa’s shotmaking and composure in the final stretch.
How Manresa Changed the Game
Valencia looked ready to control the night after the opening half. The visitors won the first quarter 22-18, then poured in 34 points in the second to take a 56-48 halftime lead. That flow aligned with the pre-game data: Valencia had been the more efficient offensive team over the previous 10 games, posting a 118 offensive rating, 73.4 true shooting percentage and 71.9 effective field goal percentage.
Manresa’s response came immediately after halftime. The home team won the third quarter 30-26, trimming the deficit and forcing the game into a possession-by-possession finish. The decisive turn came in the fourth, when Manresa held Valencia to its lowest-scoring quarter of the night and scored 26 of its own.
That closing stretch mattered because Valencia had been built to avoid exactly this kind of outcome. The visitors entered with a lower turnover rate than Manresa, a higher assist rate and a stronger rebounding profile over the last 10 games. But the final score reflected a different pressure point: Manresa’s offense, which entered averaging 85.4 points per game on the season, found enough rhythm at home to clear the century mark against a team that had been favored to level the series.
Valencia’s Efficiency Was Not Enough
Valencia’s profile was not misleading. The visitors’ strengths showed up in the box score, particularly through ball movement and interior resistance. Valencia recorded 23 assists, compared with Manresa’s 14, and finished with eight blocks. It also edged the rebounding battle 33-32.
But the margins were thin elsewhere. Both teams were credited with 13 turnovers, muting one of Valencia’s clearest pre-game advantages. Over the previous 10 games, Valencia had averaged 11.5 turnovers while Manresa averaged 14.6. In Game 2, that gap disappeared.
Valencia also got the shot volume and execution to stay in front for long stretches, but it could not separate. The visitors made 28 of 44 field goals, 10 of 27 from 3-point range and 16 of 24 at the line. Manresa countered with 27 of 50 from the field, 11 of 26 from deep and 17 of 24 at the stripe. The single extra made 3 and single extra free throw became meaningful in a two-point game.
Pre-Game Indicators Favored Valencia
This was not a classic upset built on injury variance or schedule imbalance. Neither team had significant injuries reported. Manresa had six days of rest and one game in the previous seven days, while Valencia had seven days of rest and no games in that span. Both teams were positioned to play close to full strength.
The broader indicators pointed toward Valencia. The visitors had a superior net rating over the previous 10 games, plus a stronger rebound percentage and assist rate. They also entered on a 5-3 away split with 89.5 points per game, while Manresa was 4-4 at home despite averaging 90.4 points in those games.
But Manresa’s home offense proved more relevant than its overall record. Reyes Alejandro, Obasohan Retin, E. Brooks, Bassas Ferran and Ubal Agustin gave Manresa a scoring and creation base entering the matchup, and the team’s shot profile suggested a willingness to play aggressively from the perimeter. Manresa’s recent three-point rate stood at 74.2, while Valencia’s was even higher at 82.7. Game 2 followed that outline: both teams leaned into the arc, and Manresa made one more from deep.
Series Pressure Shifts Hard to Valencia
The result pushes Valencia into a difficult spot despite its stronger season-long profile and greater playoff experience. Valencia entered with six units of playoff experience compared with Manresa’s three, but Manresa now owns the only number that matters: a 2-0 series lead.
For Manresa, the win validates more than a hot shooting night. It showed the ability to absorb Valencia’s second-quarter surge, survive a high-assist performance from the visitors and win the fourth quarter against the higher-ranked CPI team.
For Valencia, the concern is not that it played poorly. It is that many of its advantages appeared and still were not enough. The visitors moved the ball, protected the rim and won small edges on the glass. Manresa still closed better.
That is the problem with a playoff deficit. Efficiency can explain the game. It cannot recover the lost opportunity.