Bilbao did what the matchup profile said it should do — but Granada made it work for every possession.
Behind an 88-83 win Sunday at Bilbao Arena, Bilbao moved to 2-0 in the best-of-seven series, holding serve as the market favorite and reinforcing the gap suggested by the pre-game data. Bilbao entered with a 76.7 percent implied win probability, a 15-13 record and a sizable CPI advantage over Granada. The home side converted that edge into control after halftime, using a 26-19 third quarter to flip a tight game and carry enough cushion through the fourth.
Granada, now trailing the series despite arriving with three wins in its last five games, again showed enough scoring punch to threaten. But the same structural issues that have followed its season remained decisive: defensive slippage, turnover pressure and an inability to sustain clean possessions late.
Bilbao’s Third Quarter Changed the Game
The first half gave Granada a real opening. The teams were tied 16-16 after the first quarter before Granada erupted for 30 points in the second, taking a 46-41 halftime lead. That stretch put Bilbao’s defense under pressure and briefly disrupted the expected script.
Bilbao’s response was immediate. The hosts won the third quarter 26-19, turning a five-point halftime deficit into a two-point lead entering the fourth. From there, Bilbao closed with a 21-18 final period, enough to withstand Granada’s late push and finish off an 88-83 result.
That third-quarter surge mattered because Bilbao had entered the matchup with the better overall foundation. Over the recent 10-game sample, Bilbao owned a 108.1 offensive rating compared with Granada’s 106.8, while Granada’s defensive rating sat at 114.8. The game followed that broader outline: Granada could score, but it could not get enough stops when Bilbao’s offense found rhythm.
Turnovers Tilted the Possession Battle
The clearest separator was ball security. Granada committed 21 turnovers, while Bilbao finished with 14. In a five-point game, that seven-turnover gap carried major weight.
It also aligned with the pre-game numbers. Both teams entered with identical recent turnover rates of 24.9, and neither profile suggested a clean, low-mistake game. But Bilbao handled the pressure better when it mattered, pairing 15 assists with 14 turnovers. Granada had 12 assists against 21 turnovers, a ratio that made sustained half-court execution difficult.
Bilbao also produced more defensive playmaking, finishing with six steals and three blocks. Granada had five steals and no blocks. Those margins did not overwhelm the game, but they reinforced Bilbao’s ability to generate extra resistance without needing a dominant rebounding night.
Granada’s Free-Throw Volume Kept It Close
Granada found one reliable path to offense: the foul line. The visitors made 26 of 30 free throws, a major source of efficient scoring and a reason the game stayed within reach into the final minutes.
Bilbao was also strong at the line, hitting 17 of 20, but Granada’s volume advantage there helped offset its turnover problems. The difference was that Bilbao balanced its scoring more effectively. The hosts shot 22-for-37 on two-point attempts and added 9-for-33 from 3-point range, while Granada went 18-for-33 inside the arc and 7-for-27 from deep.
Granada’s 34-28 rebounding edge gave it another route into the game, but the extra boards could not fully counteract the turnover deficit. Bilbao did not control the glass, yet it controlled enough of the game’s decision points.
Pre-Game Indicators Held Up
This was not a surprise outcome. Bilbao entered at 15-13 compared with Granada’s 5-23, carried a 66.7 percent home win rate in its split sample and had averaged 84.5 points in those home games. Granada’s road split was stark: 0-5 with 83.4 points per game.
The CPI matchup was even more direct. Bilbao came in at 51.14, ranked eighth, while Granada stood at 24.25, ranked 16th. The 26.9-point differential framed Bilbao as the stronger side before tipoff, and the result reinforced that gap, even if Granada’s second-quarter burst made it uncomfortable.
Rest also favored Bilbao. The hosts had 14 days off and no games in the previous seven days, while Granada had seven days of rest and one game in that span. With no significant injuries reported on either side, the matchup was decided less by availability and more by execution.
Series Outlook
Bilbao now leads 2-0, a meaningful position in a best-of-seven series but not a finished job. Granada has shown enough shot creation and free-throw pressure to stay competitive, especially when Luka Bozic, Lluis Costa Martinez, Amar Alibegovic, Elias Valtonen and Medhy Ngouama can collectively stretch possessions and manufacture points.
But the burden is clear. Granada cannot afford another high-turnover game and expect to erase Bilbao’s advantages. Bilbao’s core — led in the broader profile by Darrun Hilliard, Melwin Jan Pantzar, Tryggvi Hlinason, Justin Jaworski and Margiris Normantas — has given the series a more stable shape.
Game 2 was close on the scoreboard. In the data, it looked like Bilbao imposing just enough of its season-long identity: better offensive efficiency, stronger overall team profile, home-court reliability and cleaner late-game possession management.