Hapoel Tel-Aviv hosts Anadolu Efes on October 28, 2026, at Arena Botevgrad in Round 8 of the regular season, bringing a 5-2 record into a matchup against an Efes team sitting at 3-4. There is no recent head-to-head history between the teams, and neither side has reported significant injuries.
The market gives Hapoel Tel-Aviv a 68.8% implied probability across nine bookmakers, with Anadolu Efes at 31.2%. The spread board is concentrated around Hapoel as a short favorite, while the total market clusters in the high 160s and low 170s, reflecting the contrast between Hapoel’s scoring efficiency and Efes’ pace.
Efficiency profile favors Hapoel Tel-Aviv
Hapoel has scored 90 points per game through seven games, supported by a 64.7 true shooting percentage and a 54.0 effective field goal percentage. Its offensive rating sits at 112.5, and its defensive rating at 99.3 gives it a plus-13.2 net rating.
Anadolu Efes has averaged 83 points per game, with a 57.7 true shooting percentage and a 52.1 effective field goal percentage. Efes’ offensive rating is 95.2, its defensive rating is 95.4, and its net rating is minus-0.2.
The gap is not just in shot-making. Hapoel has turned the ball over at a 13.0% rate, while Efes has a 17.5% turnover rate. That difference matters in a matchup where Efes wants more possessions but cannot afford empty trips against a Hapoel team converting possessions at a higher level.
Pace is the tactical hinge
Efes plays at a pace of 87.2, well above Hapoel’s 80.0. That creates the central strategic question: can Efes lift the possession count without losing control of the ball?
Efes averages 17.9 assists, compared with Hapoel’s 14.9, and owns a 62.2 assist rate. Hapoel’s assist rate is 53.3, but its offense has been more efficient overall because of stronger shooting efficiency and fewer turnovers.
Hapoel’s three-point rate is 42.7, and the team is shooting 36.7% from three. Efes has a 39.0 three-point rate and is shooting 32.2% from deep. If Efes pushes tempo but Hapoel generates cleaner perimeter looks, the pace increase could work against the visitors.
Home and away splits deepen the contrast
Hapoel is 3-1 in its home split and averages 94 points in those games. Efes is 1-3 away from home and averages 76.3 points in its away split.
Those splits align with the broader profile. Hapoel’s 5-2 record has been built on a top-end scoring base and a positive efficiency margin, while Efes’ 3-4 start reflects a team that can create assists and pressure the ball but has not yet paired pace with reliable scoring efficiency.
Key players to watch
Elijah Bryant leads Hapoel’s key group with 14.9 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game across seven appearances. Zach LeDay adds 13.4 points and 5.3 rebounds, while Vasilije Micic contributes 12.7 points and 3.6 assists.
Antonio Blakeney gives Hapoel another double-digit scorer at 12.4 points per game, and Daniel Oturu adds 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds. Hapoel’s rebounding percentage is 50.2, narrowly ahead of Efes at 49.4, and Oturu’s work on the glass will be important against Dario Saric.
For Anadolu Efes, Cameron Payne has averaged 17 points and 3 assists in four games, while Mike James has averaged 15 points and 4 assists in three games. Saric has been the most stable frontcourt piece, averaging 12.9 points and 6.1 rebounds over seven games, and Matthew Strazel has added 12 points and 3.6 assists.
CPI and rest context
Hapoel Tel-Aviv enters with a CourtFrame Power Index of 100.00, ranked No. 1, with a plus-1.8 trend. Anadolu Efes has a CPI of 46.82, ranked No. 12, with a plus-2.1 trend. The CPI differential is 53.2 in Hapoel’s favor.
The rest setup is relatively balanced. Hapoel has had seven days of rest and no games in the last seven days, while Efes has had six days of rest and one game in the last seven days.
What decides it
Efes needs its tempo to produce assisted, high-value possessions rather than turnovers. Its 7.0 steals per game show defensive activity, but Hapoel’s 10.4 turnovers per game and 13.0% turnover rate indicate a team that has protected possessions well enough to sustain its efficiency.
Hapoel’s path is clearer: control the turnover margin, keep Efes’ transition opportunities limited, and lean on its superior true shooting profile. If the game settles into half-court execution, Hapoel’s 112.5 offensive rating and 64.7 true shooting percentage give it the stronger statistical foundation entering Round 8 of the regular season.