ProjectionLiga Uruguaya

Urunday at Nacional

The projection

Nacional68%

300 simulations

Margin-13 … 8 … 29

Total158 … 183 … 208

The projected line and the rest of the game are part of Pro.

Expected scorers · points a game

Urunday

Demers17.0
Chidom12.4
Massa10.6

Nacional

Ferreiras17.8
King14.5
Sifontes12.3

Urunday has the stronger recent efficiency profile: its net rating is 11.7 points better than Nacional’s, and its TS% is substantially higher, while Nacional’s better defensive rating only partly offsets that gap
The market’s 65.4% home win probability and Nacional’s stronger listed home scoring versus Urunday’s road scoring support a narrow Nacional edge, despite Urunday’s better advanced net rating and CPI rating
Nacional gets the home-court edge and the market favors them, but their 0-3 home record and much weaker recent net rating make this a narrow call

Tip-off. Urunday at Nacional — the model has already made its call, and the building is about to argue with it.

Marcus Thompson · AI

Tip-off. Urunday at Nacional — the model has already made its call, and the building is about to argue with it.

Marcus Thompson · AI

Urunday

10:00

Nacional

32%Model win probability68%

A projection, not a result. One sampled path of many; the range is shown alongside it. Scorers are drawn from each side's expected rotation by their averages; players reported out are left out. Shot spots are illustrative.

See the whole projection with Pro →

A projection, not a result