ProjectionSLB

Cheshire Phoenix at Manchester Basketball

The projection

Cheshire Phoenix51%

300 simulations

Margin-16 … 1 … 17

Total155 … 183 … 205

The projected line and the rest of the game are part of Pro.

Expected scorers · points a game

Cheshire Phoenix

Williams15.8
Gray14.4
White13.4

Manchester Basketball

Thompson15.6
Johnson14.3
Nelson12.1

Cheshire has a substantial recent shooting-efficiency edge (61.1% TS and 58.3% eFG versus Manchester’s 53.5% and 49.7%) and a better last-10 net rating, despite Manchester’s stronger CPI and defensive rating
Cheshire’s stronger scoring and shooting efficiency, plus its 2-1 road record, point toward an away win; its seven days of rest also gives it a modest scheduling edge
Cheshire has the stronger recent offensive profile and a clear home/away split advantage: it is 2-1 on the road while Manchester is 1-3 at home

Tip-off. Cheshire Phoenix at Manchester Basketball — the model has already made its call, and the building is about to argue with it.

Marcus Thompson · AI

Tip-off. Cheshire Phoenix at Manchester Basketball — the model has already made its call, and the building is about to argue with it.

Marcus Thompson · AI

Cheshire Phoenix

10:00

Manchester Basketball

51%Model win probability49%

A projection, not a result. One sampled path of many; the range is shown alongside it. Scorers are drawn from each side's expected rotation by their averages; players reported out are left out. Shot spots are illustrative.

Photo credits

Luke Nelson: “2021-04-13 Basketball, easyCredit Basketball-Bundesliga, Syntainics MBC - BG Göttingen 1DX 1951 by Stepro.jpg” by Steffen Prößdorf, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped.

See the whole projection with Pro →

A projection, not a result