CourtFrame
Pricing
CourtFrame
NCAA

NCAA Predictions

Win probabilities from the CourtFrame model

Tuesday, November 3

NCAA•12:00 AM
XavierHome
VS
Mount St. Mary'sAway

CourtFrame model · Lean

Xavier

Projected margin: Xavier by 0.9

59%Win probability
Xavier 59%41% Mount St. Mary's
  • ▸7 of 7 CourtFrame models make Xavier the favourite.
  • ▸Power Index (last season): Mount St. Mary's 169th, Xavier 256th.
  • ▸Xavier: L-W-L in the last 3 league games.
7 Models7 of 7 favour Xavier
  • Elo
    67%
  • Logistic
    59%
  • Logistic v2Pub
    59%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    59%
  • Gradient boosting
    66%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    65%
  • LLM panel
    59%

Power Index · 2025-26 final

Xavier36.0#256
Mount St. Mary's47.5#169
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league that season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Xavier
LWL
Mount St. Mary's
L
Game page →
NCAA•12:00 AM
Wright StateHome
VS
Air ForceAway

CourtFrame model · Clear favourite

Wright State

Projected margin: Wright State by 16.9

88%Win probability
Wright State 88%12% Air Force
  • ▸7 of 7 CourtFrame models make Wright State the favourite.
  • ▸Power Index (last season): Wright State 51st, Air Force 358th.
  • ▸Wright State: W-W-L in the last 3 league games.
7 Models7 of 7 favour Wright State
  • Elo
    87%
  • Logistic
    90%
  • Logistic v2Pub
    88%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    87%
  • Gradient boosting
    95%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    94%
  • LLM panel
    59%

Power Index · 2025-26 final

Wright State67.2#51
Air Force4.0#358
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league that season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Wright State
WWL
Air Force
LL
Game page →

Monday, November 2

NCAA•11:30 PM
DukeHome
VS
ArmyAway

CourtFrame model · Clear favourite

Duke

Projected margin: Duke by 19.4

92%Win probability
Duke 92%8% Army
  • ▸7 of 7 CourtFrame models make Duke the favourite.
  • ▸Power Index (last season): Duke 3rd, Army 324th.
  • ▸Duke: W-W-W-W-L in the last 5 league games.
7 Models7 of 7 favour Duke
  • Elo
    96%
  • Logistic
    95%
  • Logistic v2Pub
    93%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    92%
  • Gradient boosting
    93%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    92%
  • LLM panel
    59%

Power Index · 2025-26 final

Duke95.6#3
Army24.5#324
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league that season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Duke
WWWWL
Army
No recent games
Game page →
← All Predictions

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are CourtFrame NCAA predictions?

Every published pick is graded against the final score, and the record — misses included — is public on the track record page. The model is also scored each night against the bookmakers' closing line.

Where do the numbers come from?

From the CourtFrame model, a statistical model retrained every night on every game we track: team ratings carried across seasons, recent form, rest, and box-score efficiency adjusted for the opponents played. When a team has too few games behind it, we publish no pick rather than a guess.

How should I use these predictions?

Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice.