Our Pick
Oklahoma City Thunder
Confidence
62%
Projected Spread
+3.5
Oklahoma City has a clear baseline edge from the provided team-level indicators: a much stronger home record (50-15) and elite recent form (WWWWW) compared with Denver’s more inconsistent stretch (LWWLL). With no recent head-to-head history to lean on, the most reliable signals here point to the Thunder being the more stable side in this spot. That said, Oklahoma City’s injury list is substantial and includes several notable absences (Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Jalen Williams all OUT, plus multiple depth pieces). Those outs meaningfully reduce lineup continuity and two-way versatility, which narrows the gap despite Denver reporting no significant injuries. As a result, the pick stays with the Thunder due to record/form, but with moderated confidence and a smaller projected margin than the home record alone would suggest.






















