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NBA

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

Prediction & preview · Friday, October 30, 2026 • Kaseya Center

Our pick · Lean

Indiana Pacers

Projected margin: Indiana Pacers by 3.4

57%Win probability
Miami Heat 43%57% Indiana Pacers

Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice.

Pro Insight

Where the value is on this game

Pro compares our model with every bookmaker's price and flags the bets where the gap is big enough to matter — with the edge, expected value, stake size and a grade.

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7 Models6 of 7 favour Miami Heat
  • Elo
    68%
  • Logistic
    63%
  • Logistic v2
    59%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    62%
  • Gradient boosting
    60%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    61%
  • LLM panelPub
    43%

Power Index

Miami Heat15.4↓6.1#25
Indiana Pacers46.4↓3.6#11
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Miami Heat0–4
LLLLL
5 days rest
Indiana Pacers2–2
LWLWL
4 days rest

Game Preview

Miami Heat host Indiana Pacers at Kaseya Center on Friday, October 30 in the NBA. Miami Heat are 0–4 this season, Indiana Pacers 2–2. Miami Heat have lost their last 5 league games. In the CourtFrame Power Index, Miami Heat are 25th at 15.4 and Indiana Pacers 11th at 46.4.

Key Factors to Watch

  • 1Our models split from the pick: 6 of 7 favour Miami Heat.
  • 2Power Index: Indiana Pacers 11th, Miami Heat 25th.
  • 3Miami Heat: L-L-L-L-L in the last 5 league games.
  • 4Indiana Pacers: L-W-L-W-L in the last 5 league games.
  • 5Rest: Miami Heat 5 days, Indiana Pacers 4 days.

Model Outlook(Win probability: 57%)

Our pick has Indiana Pacers winning 57% of the time, by 3.4 points. Across our 7 models the range is 32–57%.

Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice. How the model works

Injury Report

Miami Heat
  • DOUBTFUL
    Simone Fontecchio
    Illness
Indiana Pacers
  • OUT
    Johnny Furphy
    ACL Repair / Surgery
  • OUT
    T.J. McConnell
    Hamstring Strain
  • OUT
    Ben Sheppard
    Meniscus Tear
  • OUT
    Ivica Zubac
    Ankle Sprain
  • GTD
    Tyrese Haliburton
    Hamstring Tightness / Soreness
  • GTD
    Andrew Nembhard
    Neck Stiffness / Soreness

Updated daily. Data from official injury reports.

Matchup Insights

Pace
Similar Pace27.4 vs 29.0
Injury ImpactSignificant
Schedule EdgeEven
Home/Away Win%0% / 100%

Game Info

League
NBA
Date
Fri, Oct 30
Time
8:00 PM EDT
Venue
Kaseya Center
Stage
Regular season