Nacional vs Aguada

Prediction & preview · Wednesday, October 21, 2026 • Polideportivo Gran Parque Central

Aguada

Away

See how the model expects this to go

Prediction

How it works · Track record

Our pick · Lean

Nacional

Projected margin: Nacional by 0.4

58%Win probability

Nacional 58%42% Aguada

Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice.

Pro Insight

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7 Models7 of 7 favour Nacional

Elo
66%
Logistic
70%
Logistic v2
67%
Logistic v2 + players
67%
Gradient boosting
64%
Gradient boosting + players
65%
LLM panelPub
58%

Power Index · 2025-26 final

Nacional63.3#3

Aguada85.2#2

Components scaled within the league that season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Nacional

WLWLL

Aguada

LWWLL

Game Preview

Nacional host Aguada at Polideportivo Gran Parque Central on Wednesday, October 21 in the Liga Uruguaya. In the CourtFrame Power Index (last season's final), Nacional are 3rd at 63.3 and Aguada 2nd at 85.2.

Key Factors to Watch

17 of 7 CourtFrame models make Nacional the favourite.
2Power Index (last season): Aguada 2nd, Nacional 3rd.
3Nacional: W-L-W-L-L in the last 5 league games.
4Aguada: L-W-W-L-L in the last 5 league games.

Model Outlook(Win probability: 58%)

Our pick has Nacional winning 58% of the time, by 0.4 points. Across our 7 models the range is 58–70%.

Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice. How the model works

Game Info

League: Liga Uruguaya
Date: Wed, Oct 21
Time: 12:30 AM UTC
Venue: Polideportivo Gran Parque Central

Team Pages

Nacional

Aguada