Fenerbahce vs Zalgiris Kaunas | Preview

Euroleague

Thursday, April 30, 2026 • Ulker Spor ve Etkinlik Salonu

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Prediction

Winner

Fenerbahce

Confidence

50%

Margin

+1.3

AI Consensus4 of 7 agree

50%confident

▸Zalgiris Kaunas has a superior Net Rating of 2
▸Zalgiris Kaunas has a higher Courtframe Power Index and a positive net rating, indicating stronger recent performance despite being on the road
▸Fenerbahce, despite their recent losing streak, has a strong home record and benefits from the home court advantage in the finals

Matchup Insights

Pace

Slow vs Fast51.2 vs 56

Injury ImpactNone

Schedule EdgeEven

Home/Away Win%71.4% / 28.6%

Upset Risk65.00%

Confidence Breakdown

Stats54%

Market78%

Momentum82%

Injuries82%

Matchup82%

Sentiment72%

Zalgiris Kaunas has a superior Net Rating of 2.4 compared to Fenerbahce's -4.9, indicating better recent performance. Despite Fenerbahce's higher True Shooting %, Zalgiris' faster pace could exploit Fenerbahce's weaker defense (DRtg 101.5). The matchup suggests a high-scoring game given both teams' PPG and pace metrics, with Zalgiris' road scoring potential giving them a slight edge. Zalgiris Kaunas has a higher Courtframe Power Index and a positive net rating, indicating stronger recent performance despite being on the road. Their offensive efficiency and recent form suggest they can overcome Fenerbahce's home advantage. The predicted total reflects both teams' high-scoring capabilities, but playoff context may slightly reduce pace and scoring. Fenerbahce, despite their recent losing streak, has a strong home record and benefits from the home court advantage in the finals. Zalgiris Kaunas has been performing well recently but struggles on the road. Both teams are well-rested, but Fenerbahce's home performance and slight edge in playoff experience give them the advantage. The predicted total reflects the high scoring nature of both teams, with Fenerbahce's defense expected to tighten at home. Fenerbahce holds a slight edge due to their stronger home performance (71.4% win rate) and recent positive trend in their CPI. Despite Zalgiris Kaunas having a higher overall CPI, their road struggles (28.6% win rate) and recent negative trend diminish their advantage. Both teams are healthy, but Fenerbahce's home court and slight statistical edge in recent form give them the advantage in this tightly contested playoff matchup. Fenerbahce's strong home performance (71.4% win rate) and their ability to control the pace (51.2) favor them in this matchup. Despite Zalgiris Kaunas' higher scoring average, their road struggles (28.6% win rate) and recent negative trend in CPI suggest they may struggle to maintain their offensive output. Fenerbahce's recent form is concerning, but their home court advantage and ability to slow the game down should give them the edge in this playoff setting. Fenerbahce has a strong home record and is coming off a series lead, which can boost their morale. Despite their recent form being shaky, they have the advantage of home court and a slightly better defensive rating compared to Zalgiris. Zalgiris's road performance has been weak, which could be a significant factor in this playoff setting. Despite Fenerbahce's home advantage, their recent form is concerning with four consecutive losses, and their negative net rating suggests underlying issues. Zalgiris Kaunas, meanwhile, has been playing well, with a positive net rating and a strong recent form. Their ability to score more points per game and better defensive metrics could lead to an upset.

CPI Matchup

Fenerbahce62.39↑

Zalgiris Kaunas70.37↓

Edge: Zalgiris Kaunas 8 CPI

Game Info

League: Euroleague
Date: Thu, Apr 30
Time: 5:45 PM
Venue: Ulker Spor ve Etkinlik Salonu
Stage: Euroleague - Final

Team Pages

Fenerbahce

Zalgiris Kaunas